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2018 Annual Economic and Financial Review
MONTSERRAT
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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
sector. Improvements in the central
government's fiscal balances in 2019 will
depend on increases in current revenue, the
containment of expenditure on transfers and
subsidies, and goods and services. In
addition, budgetary aid from the United
Kingdom; which, on average, has financed
over two-thirds of total expenditure, will also
help to bolster fiscal performance. However,
the uncertainty with respect to the end product
of the Brexit negotiations and untimely access
to budgetary aid pose significant risks to both
the fiscal outturn and the economic growth
prospects. Additionally, volcanic eruptions
and adverse weather conditions, during the
2019 hurricane season, continue to be notable
threats.
Real Sector Developments
The estimated value of total goods and
services produced in 2018 grew by 1.6 per
cent, primarily attributable to increased
activity in the main sectors of the economy,
such as hotels and restaurants and
construction.
In the hotels and restaurants sector a proxy for
activity in the tourism industry, value added is
estimated to have increased by 1.9 per cent,
following an expansion of 37.9 per cent in the
prior year. This development was associated
with growth of 0.1 per cent to 8,834 in stay-
over arrivals, which accounted for
approximately 54.2 per cent of total visitor
arrivals.
This outturn was on account of increased
arrivals from the United States of America
(3.4 per cent); and the United Kingdom
(1.8 per cent), while there were declines in the
number of visitors from the Canada
(6.5 per cent) and Caribbean (2.5 per cent).
The yachting sub sector also contributed to the
improved performance of the industry as the
number of passengers visiting the island rose
by 23.8 per cent to 1,650, in contrast to a
26.2 per cent decline in 2017.