2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

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INFORMS Nashville – 2016
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2 - The Expanding Search Ratio Of A Graph
Thomas Lidbetter, London School of Economics, Houghton Street,
London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom,
Thomas Lidbetter, Rutgers Business School, Newark, NJ, 07102,
United States, , Spyros Angelopoulos,
Christoph Dürr
We study the problem of searching for a hidden target in an edge-weighted graph.
We use a recently introduced search paradigm called expanding search, where a
sequence of edges is chosen starting from a given root vertex such that each edge
is adjacent to a previously chosen edge. We define the search ratio of an
expanding search as the max. over all vertices of the ratio of the time taken to
reach the vertex and the shortest-path cost to it from the root. We seek the
randomized expanding search with minimum expected search ratio, which is
equivalent to solving a zero-sum game between a Searcher and a Hider. We solve
the problem for certain classes of graphs, and obtain constant-factor
approximations for others.
3 - Modeling Short Range Missile Defense And Iron Dome
Michael J Armstrong, Associate Professor, Brock University, Dept
of FOIS Faculty of Business, St Catharines, ON, L2S 3A1, Canada,
This paper develops a model of short range ballistic missile defense and uses it to
study the performance of the Israeli Iron Dome system. The deterministic model
allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model
enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the
difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of
imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also
developed. Analysis shows that system performance is highly sensitive to the
missile salvo size.
4 - United States Coast Guard Reduced Staffing Simulation
Chad A Long, United States Coast Guard, FAA Technical Center
Building 350, Atlantic City International Airport, Atlantic City, NJ,
08234, United States,
Under the current schedule, Air Station Atlantic City pilots are averaging 17 flight
hours per month, which is below the United States Coast Guard requirement. A
new schedule, with decreased staffing was simulated in Arena, to determine if it
would increase flight time and be robust enough to staff the unit year-round.
5 - Behavioral Analysis Of Illegal Fishery In The Gulf Of Mexico
Ali Pala, PhD Student, University at Buffalo, SUNY,
271 Palmdale Drive, Apt 5, Buffalo, NY, 14221, United States,
, Vineet Madasseri Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang
Illegal fishery activities in the Gulf of Mexico pose a threat to U.S. national
security, as well as damage to the economy. The U.S. Coast Guard estimates over
1,100 incursions annually by Mexican fisherman into U.S. regulated waters in the
Gulf of Mexico. In this research, we study the behavior of illegal fishermen and
analyze how that is affected by various factors such as weather, fish habitats,
seasonal effects, and others. We use data mining techniques and mathematical
models to propose optimal patrolling strategies that improve the chances of
interdicting illegal fishery.
WA89
Broadway C-Omni
Innovations in Connected and Autonomous Vehicles
Sponsored: TSL, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
Sponsored Session
Chair: Peiheng Li, Arizona State University, 1, Tempe, AZ, 6,
United States,
1 - A Distributed Framework For Network-Wide Traffic Monitoring
And Platoon Information Aggregation Using V2V Communications
Peiheng Li, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States,
, Yingyan Lou
This study explores an innovative framework for distributed traffic monitoring
and information aggregation using vehicle-to-vehicle communications alone.
Distributed protocols that run on individual vehicles are developed and tested
through simulation. A new concept of micro-discontinuity is proposed for
identifying platoons, and initiating and terminating traffic information
aggregation. The impact of market penetration rate is also analyzed.
2 - Development Of Adaptive Forward Collision Warning Algorithm
Incorporating Prediction Uncertainty To Reduce False Alarms
Yong Hoon Kim, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United
States, Shubham Agrawal, Srinivas Peeta
This study proposes an adaptive forward collision warning (FCW) algorithm that
adjusts its warning threshold according to the uncertainty in vehicle trajectory
prediction. The prediction uncertainty is modeled by kinematic information of
surrounding vehicles obtained through vehicle-to-vehicle communication.
Numerical experiments show that the proposed adaptive FCW algorithm can
provide early warning while reducing the rate of false/nuisance alarms.
3 - Integrating The Operations Perspective Into Planning Of
Automotive Vehicle Platforms
Paul Jana, Research assistant, Technische Universität Muenchen,
Arcisstr 21, Munich, 80333, Germany, ,
Martin Grunow
To address the mass customization trade-off many automotive OEMs moved
towards a multi-platform based product portfolio. One major benefit is the
reduced internal variety in operations. So far, the multi-platform problem is
mostly approached from the product perspective without adopting the operations
perspective. We present a mixed-integer linear programming approach integrating
network design, capacity configuration, and further operations requirements into
automotive multi-platform planning and show the superiority of an integrated
approach in a numerical study based on an industry setting.
WA90
Broadway D-Omni
Health Care, Modeling XII
Contributed Session
Chair: Yang Zhan, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200030,
China,
1 - A Stochastic Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibrium Model For
Long-term Care Capacity Planning
Ashkan Hassani, Texas A&M University, 4050 ETB, College
Station, TX, 77840, United States, ,
Mark Alan Lawley, Nan Kong
Long-term care (LTC) is needed by people who have limitations in activities of
daily living. In general, there are two types of LTC delivery: nursing home care
and home- and community-based service (HCBS). We develop a stochastic
Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot (SNC) equilibrium model to determine the optimal
capacities for nursing home and HCBS. The capacity of HCBS will be determined
by the public insurer who performs as a leader in a Stackelberg game. Nursing
homes will be followers in the Stackelberg game with knowledge of the public
insurer’s policy, and they compete with each other and could reach Nash
equilibrium in a Nash-Cournot game.
2 - Dynamically Tracking Multiple Types Of Risks Of Falls With
Wearable Sensors via Data Association Problem
Alla Kammerdiner, Assistant Professor, New Mexico State
University, Las Cruces, NM, United States,
Andre Nunes Guerrero
Wearable sensors are used in practice for detection of falls. We formulate the data
association problem arising in dynamic tracking multiple types of risks of falls
with wearable sensors as the multi-dimensional problem (MAP). Tracking of risks
is done dynamically as data from multiple sensors arrive continually and are
partitioned into frames. We consider multiple-frame risk-track initiation and risk-
track maintenance for single-pane, double-pane, and multiple-pane sliding
windows. Track maintenance include: extending existing risk-tracks, terminating
existing tracks, and initiating new risk-tracks. The optimization models are
applied to empirical data from wearable sensor system.
3 - A Simulation Model Of Glucose Metabolism For Predicting Blood
Glucose Level
Buket Aydas, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI,
53202, United States, , Mukul Goyal
We develop a human body glucose metabolism model for predicting blood glucose
levels using discrete event simulation. The model estimates the glycated
hemoglobin (HbA1c) level in the blood and predicts the impact, in terms of BGL
and HbA1c levels, of a particular diet-exercise routine. Each organ in the human
body that relates to glucose metabolism is modeled individually within the
simulation. The results are validated by using reference glycemic index (GI)
values of food.
4 - Two-level Optimization To Balance Value Flow And Patient Flow In
Operating Room Block Scheduling
Wei Li, Assistant Professor, University of Kentucky, 414J CRMS
Building, 147 Graham Avenue, Lexington, KY, 40506-0108,
United States,
Operating room (OR) block scheduling in the long term is important for OR
scheduling in the medium term and OR control in the short term. Similar to the
trade-off between production cost and holding cost in manufacturing systems,
there is a trade-off between value flow and patient flow in OR scheduling. We use
a two-level optimization model to balance the trade-off in OR scheduling, and test
the robustness of the model through simulation.
WA89