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5-Year Long-Range Forecast Analysis
General Fund
actual 2017
actual 2018 estimated 2019 forecast 2020 forecast 2021 forecast 2022 forecast 2023 forecast 2024
Total General Fund Revenues
35,372,372
$
32,578,375
$
32,477,280
$
35,320,000
$
34,257,692
$
35,342,437
$
36,298,977
$
37,311,228
$
Total Revenues without Transfers
30,265,152
$
31,362,752
$
32,477,280
$
33,125,000
$
34,257,692
$
35,342,437
$
36,298,977
$
37,311,228
$
Overall Revenue Growth (not including interfund transfers)
5.9%
3%
4%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
Revenue Per Capita
Less Transfers
1,237.53
$
1,242.48
$
1,249.17
$
1,236.98
$
1,242.03
$
1,220.35
$
1,216.86
$
1,214.36
$
Total General Fund Expenditures
34,492,664
$
33,165,703
$
34,613,810
$
35,320,000
$
34,665,738
$
34,952,199
$
35,749,735
$
36,453,493
$
Total Expenditures without Transfers
25,499,593
$
26,854,384
$
28,051,010
$
34,170,000
$
32,715,738
$
33,752,199
$
34,549,735
$
35,253,493
$
Overall Expenditure Growth (not including interfund transfers)
10%
5%
4%
22%
- 4%
3%
2%
2%
Expenditures Per Capita
Less Transfers
1,042.67
$
1,063.88
$
1,078.93
$
1,276.00
$
1,186.13
$
1,165.44
$
1,158.22
$
1,147.39
$
Debt Outlay Analysis
Maximum debt outlay annually within Policy
1
3,811,836
$
4,072,005
$
4,207,652
$
5,125,500
$
4,907,361
$
5,062,830
$
5,182,460
$
5,288,024
$
Retiring Debt from previous year
(104,620)
$
(624,660)
$
56,966
$
51,874
$
187,240
$
294,300
$
91,900
$
45,700
$
Existing Long-term Debt
1,562,720
$
2,187,380
$
2,130,414
$
2,078,540
$
1,891,300
$
1,597,000
$
1,505,100
$
1,459,400
$
New CIP Debt Service
-
$
-
$
-
$
1,413,660
$
1,252,930
$
1,220,740
$
1,188,550
$
1,156,360
$
Total Long-term Debt Service (including New Debt)
1,562,720
$
2,187,380
$
2,130,414
$
3,492,200
$
3,144,230
$
2,817,740
$
2,693,650
$
2,615,760
$
6%
8%
8%
10%
10%
8%
8%
7%
Tax Rate Analysis
Current and Projected Tax Rate
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
0.3900
Tax Base
4,532,717,369
$
4,587,660,798
$
4,792,000,000
$
4,915,000,000
$
5,180,410,000
$
5,335,822,300
$
5,495,896,969
$
5,660,773,878
$
Tax Base Growth
14%
1%
3%
3%
5%
3%
3%
3%
Population
24,456
25,242
25,999
26,779
27,582
28,961
29,830
30,725
Per Penny
452,365
$
457,849
$
478,242
$
490,517
$
517,005
$
532,515
$
548,491
$
564,945
$
Expenditures Per Capita
1,410.40
$
1,313.91
$
1,331.35
$
1,318.94
$
1,256.82
$
1,206.87
$
1,198.45
$
1,186.44
$
Fund Balance Analysis Consolidated (General Fund, MSD, Reserves)
Beginning Total Fund Balance
25,667,275
$
27,717,701
$
30,079,849
$
27,569,119
$
27,569,119
$
27,161,073
$
27,551,311
$
28,100,553
$
Restatements
2,514,188
$
Net Change in Fund Balance
2,050,426
$
(152,040)
$
(2,510,730)
$
-
$
(408,046)
$
390,238
$
549,242
$
857,735
$
Ending Total Fund Balance
27,717,701
$
30,079,849
$
27,569,119
$
27,569,119
$
27,161,073
$
27,551,311
$
28,100,553
$
28,958,288
$
non-spendable items:
12,463,052
$
19,846,104
$
17,548,688
$
17,368,544.97
$
17,111,475.99
$
17,357,325.93
$
17,703,348.39
$
18,243,721.44
$
Unassigned Fund Balance
3
15,254,649
$
10,233,745
$
10,020,431
$
10,200,574
$
10,049,597
$
10,193,985
$
10,397,205
$
10,714,567
$
59.3%
38.1%
35.1%
30.8%
30.5%
30.0%
29.9%
30.2%
Fund Balance High Policy
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
Fund Balance Low Policy
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures
Debt Service Ratio Performance Indicator
notes:
CAFR is source data. MSD & CRF are now required to be consolidated in General Fund.
Unassigned Fund Balance assumptions are long projections, in that estimates must span over a two year period . Should any one varible change it can radically alter the assumptions overall. Estimates are
procduced to reasonibly understand potential impacts of budgetary decisions.
Forecst expenditures in outlying years include assumptions for inflation, known programmed replacement items and other planned long-range anticipated cost.
Forecast revenues in outlying years include growth varied growth assumptions depending on the type of revenue, trends and/or a qualitative basis.