18 / 96
FROZEN HEAT
18
Scenarios are representations of ways the future might un-
fold. They assist in understanding possible developments in
complex systems. Projecting the future of energy production,
transportation, and consumption (the energy system) is sub-
ject to numerous uncertainties. These uncertainties include
– but are not limited to – future energy prices, economic
growth, demographic changes, technological advances, and
government policies. Energy system scenarios have been de-
veloped by many international and national organizations and
institutions. These include the International Energy Agency
(IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World
Energy Council (WEC), and Energy Modelling Forum (EMF).
The majority of global energy scenarios predict a substantial
increase in global energy demand by 2050. Long-term busi-
ness-as-usual energy system projections, such as those con-
ducted by the IEA, uniformly predict steady increases in the
use of fossil fuels, including natural gas, over the next sev-
eral decades. For example, the IEA’s 2010 Energy Technology
Perspectives (ETP) presents a Baseline 2050 scenario that as-
sumes no changes in existing carbon-management policies.
This scenario projects that use of all fossil fuels, particularly
coal, will increase dramatically to keep pace with future de-
mand (IEA 2010). In contrast, the BLUE Map 2050 scenario,
also presented in ETP 2010 (IEA 2010), is designed to depict
one possible least-cost path to cutting global carbon dioxide
emissions in half by 2050. The BLUE Map 2050 scenario
shows that energy demands can still be met with decreases
in coal and oil use, unchanging production of natural gas,
and expansion of nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency, and
carbon capture and storage technologies.
The potential for natural gas to be part of a practical solution
to global carbon management has gained greater attention in
recent years. The unexpected expansion of unconventional
gas commerciality, particularly in North America, has tapped
resource volumes previously considered technically and eco-
nomically unrecoverable. This has increased the potential
that global natural gas resources might serve as a bridge fuel
to the sustainable energy systems of the future. This new
outlook is reflected in the IEA’s Golden Age of Gas report
(IEA 2011b), which was developed to adjust prior IEA base-
line scenarios to reflect rapidly changing perspectives on the
global availability of unconventional gas resources. This re-
port indicates that expanded unconventional gas could drive
global gas utilization from 3.3 to 5.1 Tcm/y by 2035, eclipsing
coal use by 2030 and mitigating expected increases in energy
costs. Further expansion and diversification of the energy
supply (in terms of both fuel types and geographic sources)
are also positive developments with respect to global energy
security. From an environmental standpoint, a greater mar-
ket share of gas at a given level of energy demand generally
results in modest decreases in global greenhouse gas emis-
sions associated with energy production and use (IEA 2011b).
The projected greenhouse gas reduction due to expanded gas
use derives primarily from the partial displacement of coal or
oil use. However, the additional potential displacement by nu-
clear and renewable energy sources must also be considered.
In the IEA gas study (IEA 2011b), this interaction resulted in
a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but these reduc-
tions alone were not sufficient to achieve the desired total car-
bon emissions levels (Figure 1.5). Cumulative environmental
impacts, which include other land, air, and water impacts be-
yond greenhouse gases, are much more complex to resolve.
The IEA report explicitly excluded consideration of gas hy-
drates in its analysis of the period up to 2035, assuming that
they were unlikely to have any significant impact within that
1.4
ENERGY SCENARIOS AND
THE ROLE OF GAS IN
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT