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STEP 1: NTCP-model
Model performance (how good is the model?)
Calibration
Agreement between predicted
probabilities and observed
outcomes
Discrimination
The ability to distinguish between
patients who will develop
complications from those who do not
?
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
Sensitivitity
1-specificity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Obsreved
Expected
Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p=0.845
Area Under the Curve: 0.80 (0.75-
0.86)