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0
1,200
600
900
300
1,500
1,800
TWh/y
0
90
120
30
60
150
180
BCM/a
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
Maximum
Range
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)
Figure 3.38:
LNG supply potentials
Table 3.10:
LNG supply potentials (GWh/d)
Liquefaction capacity
The existing liquefaction capacity increased by around 20bcma in 2015 with three
new projects, two in Australia and one more in Indonesia. Another 58 newbcma are
expected to come on line shortly, for 2016 these are mainly located in Australia
(38bcma).
Additionally, around 200bcma of new liquefaction capacity is currently under con-
struction, mainly based in the United States (85bcma) and Australia (70bcma).
Another five new FIDs were taken during 2015, four of which are also located in the
United States, demonstrating that the gap shown in the previous figure might shrink
during the following years.
\\
Maximum LNG potential
The maximum supply potential has been defined for the EU at the maximum LNG
market share recorded for the EU applied to an increasing global LNG market. The
maximum market share has been set at 30% (historical record in 2011).
New LNG export capacity are based on the WEO 2015 New Policy scenario trading
mix from Middle East, Australia, North America, Sub Saharan Africa and Latin Amer-
ica in 2025 and 2040.
\\
Minimum LNG potential
The minimum supply potential has been defined on the assumption of a decrease
of the imports to a 70% of the minimum EU imports between in 2009–2014, and is
kept constant for the future.
LNG SUPPLY POTENTIALS
GWh/d
2017*
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
MAXIMUM
2,435
3,030
4,021
4,467
4,912
5,091
MINIMUM
920
920
920
920
920
920
* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 5.2 are used for the assessment