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134 | Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
0
4,000
2,000
6,000
8,000
12,000
10,000
14,000
bcm
EIA – EU 28 Pöyry – EU 28
Shale Gas Boom
Pöyry – EU 28
Some Shale Gas
Figure 3.49: Technically recoverable shale gas resources in
the EU (own depiction based on Pöyry 2013
“Macroeconomic Effects of European Shale Gas
Production”)
Other EU
DK
NL
DE
SE
ES
UK
FR
PL
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
bcm
Figure 3.50: Technically recoverable shale gas in EU
(source Pöyry “Some Shale Gas” scenario)
3.3.3.3 Shale gas
In recent years, potential EU shale gas production has become a more visible topic.
Driven by the shale gas boom in the US, the tension between Ukraine and Russia
and the growing dependency of the EU on gas imports, a significant number of
European stakeholders believe that this indigenous source should be high on the
European energy agenda. Shale gas has led to controversial debates regarding its
environmental impacts. In comparison to the US, the European geological condi-
tions are quite different. The first appraisal wells have been drilled in Poland and the
UK, however the exploration phase is still at an initial stage and therefore it is likely
that commercial flows from EU shale gas will not be delivered within the next few
years.
Reserves
As the exploration of shale gas is currently not as mature as for conventional gas,
estimations of reserves are quite diverse. EIA estimates European technically recov-
erable shale gas resources at around 13,000bcm (143,000TWh) whereas Pöyry’s
estimates are more conservative with figures ranging from 8,000 to 11,000 bcm
(88,000 – 121,000TWh) in their “Some Shale Gas” and “Boom Shale Gas” scenar-
ios. These figures can be compared with the annual European gas demand
( 418 bcm / 4,595 TWh in 2015 ) and US recoverable resources ( around
17,600bcm1)).
The term “technically recoverable” refers to the volume of shale gas that theoretically
could be extracted with current technologies2) taking into account shale mineralogy,
reservoir properties and geological complexities. Most of this technically recoverable
shale gas can be found in France, Germany, UK, Poland and Sweden.
The EU is far from having a clear legal framework regarding fracking. Due to politi-
cal, historical and geographical differences European Member States have very
different positions on shale gas. Some countries have taken measures preventing
exploration and production whereas appraisal wells have been drilled in the UK and
Poland without bridging big results for the moment. In parallel other Member States
have been working on establishing a national consensus on a legislative framework
covering fracking and the associated environmental impacts.
1) EIA 2015:
2) Pöyry, Macroeconomics Effects of European Shale Gas Production, page 15, November 2013