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Table 3.13:
Potential for shale gas (GWh/d)
Shale gas supply potential
To determine potential shale gas production, ENTSOG has taken into consideration
a range of data including information from Pöyry and TSO estimates. Due to the
uncertainty around the development of shale gas on EU territory, plus the information
received from TSOs of the complete lack of shale gas production expected, the
below potential is not taken into account in the assessment and therefore does not
relate to any of the TYNDP scenarios (EU Green Revolution/Green Evolution,
Blue Transition and Slow Progression).
\\
Some shale gas potential
Given the uncertainty surrounding EU shale gas production, this potential is based
on the conservative “Some Shale Gas” estimate included within Pöyry’s 2013 report.
It includes the application of environmental and planning constraints (limiting the
number of possible drilling areas because of environmental and planning concerns)
as well as constraints regarding practical (drilling rig trained staff availability) and
financial (cost of production exceeding possible future market prices) issues. Due
to the high uncertainty ENTSOG assumes the start of this potential should be delayed
for a period of at least 5 years.
POTENTIAL FOR SHALE GAS (GWh/d)
GWh/d
2017 2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
SOME SHALE GAS
0
0
149
579
1,262
1,515
It should be noted that TSOs estimates of shale gas production, collected by ENTSOG
in 2016, provided no data on shale gas production in any country due to the high
uncertainty based on the weak results of shale gas extraction in Europe, difficult
geological formations, the lack of available trained staff and technologies, and also
public and governmental opposition due to the risks associated to the extraction
technics.
0
200
400
600
TWh/y
0
20
40
60
bcma
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
Figure 3.51:
Potential for shale gas