Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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WB78
78-Room 301, CC
Natural Resources
Contributed Session
Chair: Wanshan Zhu, Associate Professor, Tsinghua University, Shunde
Building 613,, Depart of Industrial Engineering, Beijing, 100084, China,
1 - A Model to Assess the Impact of Overemployment and
Subsidized Fuel Price on National Oil Companies
Sergio Cabrales, Visiting Professor, Universidad de los Andes,
Carrera 53A No 127 -30 apt:1204, Bogota, DC, 0111111,
Colombia, , Juan Banavides,
Rafael Bautista
National Oil Companies (NOCs) produce 61% of worldwide oil. International Oil
Companies (IOCs) maximize the expected net present value of their profits,
whereas for NOCs are not necessarily the only objective. Indeed, NOCs’ objectives
often include non-commercial goals such as employment and fuel subsidies. We
develop an optimal control model to estimate the impact of overemployment and
fuel subsidies in terms of market value, production, and reinvestment.
2 - Strategic Bidding for a Virtual Power Plant: A Price-taker Robust
Optimization Approach
Luis Baringo, Assistant Professor, University of Castilla-La
Mancha, E.T.S.I.Industriales, Avda. Camilo Jose Cela s/n, Ciudad
Real, 13071, Spain, Morteza Rahimiyan
We consider an energy management system that controls a cluster of price-
responsive demands, a wind-power plant and an energy storage facility that are
interconnected within a small size electric energy system and that constitute a
virtual power plant (VPP). We propose a two-stage robust optimization approach
for the strategic bidding of this VPP in the day-ahead and the real-time markets.
Uncertainties in wind-power production and market prices are represented
through confidence bounds.
3 - Faustmann Revisited and Updated with Modern
Operations Research Tools
Gysbert Wessels, Consultant, 3748 Bay Tree Pl, Blacksburg, VA,
United States of America,
Faustmann’s article published in 1849 remains an important contribution to
Forestry Economics and Management. What if Faustmann had access to the
current tools of OR/MS? The presentation will show how “Faustmann’s
Formulae” can be updated and generalized. It will be shown that Faustmann’s
calculations and the generalized approach give the same results under
Faustmann’s assumptions. Many of the assumptions can be relaxed, making the
generalized approach practical to use in modern forestry.
4 - Stackelberg vs Cournot in a Natural Resource Oligopoly
Luca Colombo, Deakin University, Burwood Campus,
221 Burwood Highway, Melbourne, Australia,
, Paola Labrecciosa
In this paper, we compare and contrast feedback Nash and Stackelberg
equilibrium strategies in a differential oligopoly game in which production
requires exploitation of a common-property renewable resource. We find that the
the incentives for firms to take the lead are higher the higher the stock of the
resource. We also find that the Cournot equilibrium can be more efficient than
the Stackelberg equilibrium, both in the short-run and at the stationary
equilibrium.
5 - Electricity Capacity Planning with Cross Border Exchange
Wanshan Zhu, Associate Professor, Tsinghua University, Shunde
Building 613,, Depart of Industrial Engineering, Beijing, 100084,
China,
This paper studies the impact of cross border maximum exchange capacity on the
optimal electricity generation capacity mix. We show that models with exogenous
spot prices miss the influence of capacity expansion decisions on the market, and
suggests a model where spot prices are endogenous, as a function of demand and
available capacity. A case study in France with the EPEX Spot prices is made.
WB79
79-Room 302, CC
Software Demonstration
Cluster: Software Demonstrations
Invited Session
1 - FICO – Turnkey Optimization on the Cloud
Oliver Bastert, Ph.D., FICO,
In this workshop, we will demonstrate enhancements for modeling and solving
linear, mixed integer and nonlinear optimization problems using the latest
release of FICO® Xpress version 7.9. We will show how to rapidly turn optimiza-
tion models into collaborative applications deployed on the FICO® Analytic
Cloud. Also, learn how these capabilities can be combined with analytic model-
ing and decision rules to deliver powerful cloud-based or on-premises decision
management solutions via the FICO® Decision Management Suite.
2 - IBM Academic Initiative Group - IBM Academic Initiative for
Cloud...Building Next-generation Skills
IBM Academic Initiative Group
Digital transformations are requiring students, no matter what their major,
understand how to leverage and build solutions on the cloud. With the new
Academic Initiative for Cloud offer, faculty and students can have hands-on
cloud-based experiences to propel radical ideas and innovation using IBM
Watson, Internet of Things, big data, analytics, mobile and more. Join us to col-
laborate on best practices to empower innovation in the classroom and beyond!
Wednesday, 12:45pm - 2:15pm
WC01
01-Room 301, Marriott
Military Cognitive Analysis, Value based Acquisition
and Military Recruiting Prediction Models
Sponsor: Military Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Mike Teter, Ltc, US Army, 515 Michelson Rd, Monterey, CA,
93940, United States of America,
1 - Predicting Market Depth for Military Recruiting
Jon Alt, Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School,
Department of Operations Research, Naval Postgraduate School,
Monterey, CA, 93943, United States of America,
Sam Buttrey
This ongoing research demonstrates the application of statistics and machine
learning to identify those geographic areas that are more likely to produce
military recruits. It also seeks to compare factors influencing service specific
market depth. This comparison may inform the development of a common
decision support framework. Practical difficulties in preparing and open source
data for this purpose are discussed.
2 - Utilizing Socio-economic Factors to Evaluate Recruiting Potential
for a US Army Recruiting Company
Sandra Jackson, US Army, Thayer Hall, West Point,
United States of America,
Nedialko Dimitrov, Jon Alt
US Army currently calculates recruiting capacity as a four year weighted average
of historical data. We investigate two alternate methods for the same task —
multiple linear regression (MLR) and Poisson regression (PR). Regression
methods can account for the impact of economic factors on recruiting capacity,
whereas weighted average methods do not. Surprisingly, we show that MLR
models provide better fits than PR models, even though existing literature largely
focuses on PR models.
3 - Military Modification of The Iowa Gambling Task and Wisconsin
Card Sorting Task
Cardy Moten, Maj, TRADOC Analysis Center-Monterey, 700 Dyer
Road, Room 183, Monterey, CA, 93943, United States of
America, , Quinn Kennedy, Jon Alt,
Peter Nesbitt
TRAC-Monterey and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) have developed tasks
to measure military decision-making performance modeled after the Iowa
Gambling and Wisconsin Card Sorting Tasks. These tasks focus on high stakes and
uncertain environments particular to military decision making conditions. Thirty-
four officers were tested on their levels of cognitive flexibility and reinforcement
learning. This presentation will discuss task development, validation, and insights
of measured components.
WB78