Informs 2015

423 / 552

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
421
2 - Planning of Container Movement by Trucks in Metropolitan Area
Samaneh Shiri, PhD Candidate, University of South Carolina,
Department of Civil and Environmental Eng, 300 Main Street,
Columbia, SC, 29208, United States of America,
, Nathan Huynh
To lower operation time of the drayage problem, the empty container and chassis
allocation, and vehicle routing problem need to be coordinated. Most studies have
considered these operations individually. In this work drayage firms hire owner-
operators and should find the optimal tours for their own trucks and the
owner-operators. A mathematical model is developed as an extension of the
multiple traveling salesman problem with time windows that jointly schedules
these operations.
3 - Using a Volatility Portfolio to Create Value
Suzanne De Treville, Professor, University of Lausanne, Faculty of
Business and Economics, Anthropole 3073, Lausanne, VD, 1015,
Switzerland, , Kyle Cattani
Quantitative finance tools allow us to price demand-volatility exposure: The
volatility-exposure cost justifies local production. We demonstrate that a volatility
portfolio combining time sensitive and time-insensitive products will outperform
production of the high volatility product alone. The resulting strengthens the case
for local manufacturing in a developed economy, and encourages innovation.
WB64
64-Room 113A, CC
Teaching Methods for Decision Analysis
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Richard McGrath, Assistant Professor, United States Naval
Academy, 572M Holloway Rd, Annapolis, MD, 21402,
United States of America,
1 - The Use of Prediction Markets in Teaching Decision Analysis
Richard McGrath, Assistant Professor, United States Naval
Academy, 572M Holloway Rd, Annapolis, MD, 21402,
United States of America,
We present an exercise in prediction markets from an introductory Decision
Analysis course. For this assignment, students made predictions about the
outcome of future uncertain events, and were incentivized both as individuals
and as a group to make accurate predictions through the award or loss of class
grade points. Events used for this exercise included major sports competitions,
Federal Reserve monetary policy actions, class cancellations due to weather, and
popular culture awards.
2 - Teaching Decision Making to Teens, to Executives, to the
Government and to the Population at Large
Ali Abbas, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and
Public Policy and Director of Create, University of Southern
California, 3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 314, Los Angeles, CA,
United States of America,
This talk will reflect on methods of teaching decision analysis that have been used
in various settings. The talk will emphasize what works and what does not work
for a given audience. Lessons learned and commonalities will also be presented.
WB65
65-Room 113B, CC
Decision Making: Tradeoffs, Risk Processing
and Altruism
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Yitong Wang, University of Technology Sydney, UTS Business
School, University of Technoloy Sydney, Sydney, NS, 2007, Australia,
1 - Markov Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Cancer Treatment
Jiarui Bai, University of California, Irvine, CA, 6464 Adobe Circle,
Irvine, United States of America, Robin Keller
We present a way to build a Markov decision tree to model cancer progression
and cost-effectiveness analysis for two or more cancer treatments. We propose
several problems researchers can encounter in this kind of research and provide
possible solutions.
2 - The Existence of Altruistic Value Functions
Jay Simon, American University,
Altruism is a popular economic and psychological explanation for a wide range of
pro-social decisions and actions, and is a descriptively compelling model of
behavior. This work provides a theoretical framework for the existence of ordinal
and cardinal altruistic value functions based on an altruistic preference relation
over a set of outcomes.
3 - Revisiting Risk-as-feelings: Cognitive Processing Style Moderates
The Affect Heuristic
Eugene Chan, Lecturer, University of Technology, Sydney,
P.O. Box 123, Broadway, NS, 2008, Australia,
People do not solely rely on their rational evaluations about risks, but also their
affect-based intuitions. This paper shows that people’s cognitive processing style
moderates the affect heuristic. The heuristic primarily occurs among visualizers
because they mentally picture risks that might ensue, making them perceive risks
as more risky. Thus, this paper illuminates how different individuals perceive
risks, with implications for risk research, public policy, and decision-making.
4 - An Eye Tracking Study on Decision Making: Information
Processing and Reading Habits
Yitong Wang, University of Technology Sydney, UTS Business
School, University of Technoloy Sydney, Sydney, NS, 2007,
Australia, Tianjun Feng,
Antonin Genot, Lei Zhao
We investigates decision makers’ information-processing patterns in decisions
under risk and over time by using eye-trackers. We find that decision makers
employ more alternative-based than attribute-based procedures. In addition, we
find that reading habits play an important role in information processing - the
results suggest that screen display moderates decision makers’ information-
processing procedures.
WB66
66-Room 113C, CC
Aviation Day of Operations and Air
Traffic Optimization
Sponsor: Aviation Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Alexandre Jacquillat, PhD Candidate, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building E40-240, Cambridge,
MA, 02116, United States of America,
1 - A Mechanism for the Strategic Reduction of Air Traffic Congestion
Luca Corolli, Universit‡ degli Studi di Trieste, Via Valerio 10,
Trieste, 4127, Italy, Tatjana Bolic,
Lorenzo Castelli, Desirée Rigonat
En route congestion is currently detected on the day of operation of flights. We
develop a new strategic mechanism based on integer optimization that seeks to
prevent en route congestion through an early redistribution of air traffic. The
mechanism assigns flights departure and arrival times and routes, based on airline
requests. The benefit of using this mechanism is shown on a real instance with
30,000 European flights that is solved in short computation times.
2 - Design and Simulation of a Pushback Rate Control Policy at
Philadelphia International Airport
Patrick Mcfarlane, Graduate Research Assistant, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge,
MA, 02139, United States of America,
Hamsa Balakrishnan
This analysis designs and simulates an airport surface congestion management
policy that controls the departure pushback rate at Philadelphia airport. The
policy mitigates surface congestion at the airport and results in taxi-out time
reductions. The simulations also consider issues such as fairness of allocation, and
the impacts of operational constraints such as gate conflicts, that would
accompany actual implementation of the proposed policy.
3 - Analysis of Congestion Pricing Model to Handle
“Day of Operations” Airport Capacity Reduction
Abdul Qadar Kara, Asst. Professor, King Fahd University of
Petroleum and Minerals, P.O. Box 5067, Dhahran, 31261,
Saudi Arabia,
In my earlier work, a model was built on basic econometric principle of
congestion pricing embedded within an optimization model. The model provided
a mechanism to manage airport runway capacity reduction. The current work
reports further analysis of the model and its response against the multiple
unscheduled changes in capacity of the runway at different times on day of
operation.
WB66