Informs 2015

420 / 552

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
418
2 - Efficient Workforce Size and its Schedule in the Retail Store
Peeyush Pandey, Doctoral Student, IIM INDORE, FPM block.
room no.-315, IIM Indore, Prabandh Shikhar,, Indore, MP,
453331, India, Bhavin Shah,
Ashish Sadh, Hasmukh Gajjar
A Stochastic model is proposed to determine optimal workforce size at the
different point of time in the retail store. Further this optimal size is used as an
input to workforce-scheduling model considering uncertain and uneven customer
traffic, union contracts, labor laws, company policies etc. Proposed optimization
model and solution methodology guarantees to provide efficient workforce
schedule.
3 - Beyond the Forecast – Risk Based Promotion Management
Applied in a Grocery Retail Environment
Ted Matwijec, Managing Director, ACT Operations Research,
1345 Legendary Lane, Morrisville, NC, 28202, United States of
America, ,
Raffaele Maccioni
Promotions are one of the biggest challenges for management for businesses
focused on consumer retailing. Each product promotion campaign must
contribute to the businesses to attract new customers and still retain existing
customers. In this paper we analyze the modeling, which is applied to promotions
used at a national grocery retailer. The solution minimizes the risk of running
promotions by using optimization techniques which ultimately benefits a retailer
profitability.
4 - The Softer Side of Assortment Planning
Nazrul Shaikh, Assistant Professor, University of Miami, 268,
McArthur Engineering Building, University of Miami,
Coral Gables, FL, 33146, United States of America,
Shelby Koos
Our research focuses on the sensitivity of the optimal assortment plans to soft
costs, such as backorder costs, and proposes a methodology for generating robust
solutions to the assortment planning problem. This adds a useful element to
extant research that only focuses on improving future demand estimates and
substitution probabilities.
WB53
53-Room 107B, CC
Frontiers of Behavioral Operations Research
Sponsor: Behavioral Operations Management
Sponsored Session
Chair: Karen Zheng, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA,
02139, United States of America,
1 - A Cognitive Strategy for Reducing Managerial Bias under
Censored Demand
Jordan Tong, Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin at
Madison, WI, United States of America, ,
Daniel Feiler, Richard Larrick
Existing evidence suggests managers exhibit a censorship bias: demand beliefs and
order decisions are biased low when demand is censored by the inventory level.
We propose a new cognitive strategy, which is easily implementable in practice,
for reducing this bias. Two experiments show that the strategy improves
managerial performance across multiple profit margins and outperforms other
plausible debiasing techniques. The results also illuminate the underlying causes
of the censorship bias.
2 - The Bright and Dark Sides of Perception Biases in
Inventory Decisions
Yaozhong Wu, National University of Singapore, NUS Business
School, Singapore, Singapore,
We study the impact of perception biases in competing inventory decisions. We
analyze how a manager’s perception bias affects each other’s inventory decisions
and performances in strategic interactions, and more importantly who benefits
from these biases in the short and long runs. We show that a perception bias can
serve as a competitive advantage in the sense that a biased manager can achieve a
higher profit than an unbiased competitor.
3 - The Exploration – Execution Transition in Product Development:
An Experimental Analysis
Stephen Leider, University of Michigan, 701 Tappan Ave R4486,
Ann Arbor, MI, 48104, United States of America,
, Evgeny Kagan, William Lovejoy
We examine experimentally the effect of exogenous and endogenous transition
times on performance in a creativity task. Subjects who choose their own
transition perform worse, even when the transition time is similar. We find that
early design prototyping , testing and even failure improves performance, while
the number of ideas does not. Idea selection and execution accounts for more of
the performance difference than idea generation.
4 - Pricing When Customers have Limited Attention
Tamer Boyaci, McGill University, Montreal, Canada,
, Yalcin Akcay
We study optimal pricing when customers ha e limited attention and capability to
process information about the value (quality) of the offered products. We model
customer choice based on the theory of rational inattention in the economics
literature, and capture not only the impact of true qualities and prices, but also
the intricate effects of customer’s prior beliefs and cost of information acquisition
and processing. We consider both monopolistic and competitive settings.
WB55
55-Room 108B, CC
Decision Analysis I
Contributed Session
Chair: Xiaoya Xu, PhD, University of Macau, S9-7025, Macau,
Macau,
1 - Managing Rental Products with Breakdown
Mohammad Firouz, PhD Candidate, The University of Alabama,
610 13th St, Apt. 19, Tuscaloosa, AL, 35401, United States of
America, Burcu Keskin, Linda Li
We investigate capacity planning problem of a rental system. Products owned by
the system have a life time distribution and may breakdown for an uncertain
duration of time. We solve the proposed Quasi-Birth and Death (QBD) model via
matrix analytic methods. We also compare the result of our proposed
approximation to the problem with the QBD. In our analysis, we prove the
convexity of the approximate cost objective function and show conditions under
which it may or may not be accurate.
2 - Repeat Purchase Prediction of Loyalty Customers using
Survival Analysis
U Dinesh Kumar, Dr., Professor in Quantitative Methods &
Information Systems, Indian Institute of Management,
Bannerghatta Road, Bangalore, 560076, India,
The prediction of purchase behavior of loyalty customers in terms of who will
repeat the purchase and when the repeat purchase of a particular category will be
done. We use Survival Model combined with Logistic Model and Decision Tree to
find when and who will repeat the purchase while retaining the robustness,
interpretability of the models.
3 - Selling Probability Service: Profiting from Market Segment
and Discrimination
Xiaoya Xu, PhD, University of Macau, S9-7025, Macau,
Macau, , Zhaotong Lian, Xin Li, Pengfei Guo
We consider a setting where goods A and B are offerred to customers of three
types: buyers who desire for A, buyers who desire for B, and the third type of
buyers who are flexible.A probability selling service is created by the seller to offer
the option of getting an unknown item either A or B, targetting at the third type
of customers. This paper investigates the role of probability selling service
provider in such a setting as Priceline and Hotwire in market segmentation.
WB57
57-Room 109B, CC
Advances in Sustainable Energy and Economic
Systems Analysis
Sponsor: ENRE – Energy II – Other (e.g., Policy, Natural Gas,
Climate Change)
Sponsored Session
Chair: Soheil Shayegh, Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Carnegie
Institution for Science, 260 Panama St., Stanford, Ca, 94305,
United States of America,
1 - Adapting to Rates of Climate Change
Soheil Shayegh, Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Carnegie
Institution for Science, 260 Panama St., Stanford, Ca, 94305,
United States of America,
Ken Caldeira, Juan Moreno-Cruz
Most of the discussion around adaptation in IPCC AR5 and other sources has
focused on amounts of climate change. However, it is becoming increasingly clear
that, as climate continues to change, people and ecosystems will need to
continuously adapt to a moving target. We have developed a model that
convincingly makes this point and illustrates it with a quantitative example
involving coastal development in the face of ongoing sea level rise.
WB53