Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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WC36
36-Room 413, Marriott
Modeling Disease Transmissions Using Contact
Networks
Sponsor: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts, 160 Governors
Drive, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003,
United States of America,
1 - Understanding Feedback Between Behavioral Interventions and
Disease Evolution
Kaja Abbas, Assistant Professor, Virginia Tech, Dept. of Vet Med,
Blacksburg VA, United States of America, ,
Achla Marathe, Samarth Swarup, Achla Marathe,
Samarth Swarup
Disease evolution and behavioral responses to outbreaks are interrelated through
a complicated feedback process. Just like the disease, individuals’ perceptions and
behaviors continuously evolve resulting in self-guided behavioral adaptations.
Some of these adaptations dynamically change the social contact network, which
in turn affects the opportunities for transmission of the disease. This research will
describe the computational methods that account for these feedback.
2 - Spread on Dynamic Networks: Calibration and Forward
Reachable Sets
Benjamin Armbruster, Northwestern University, 2514 Sheridan
Rd, Evanston, IL, United States of America,
We discuss various topics about spread on networks including (1) calibrating the
network dynamics of a detailed agent-based model of HIV spread and (2) the
notion of a forward reachable set, an extension of connectivity or reach to
dynamic networks, specifically, the set of all nodes that could have been
infected/reached in a certain time. We derive simple analytic results on its
growth.
3 - Network Modeling of HIV
Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts, 160 Governors
Drive, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United
States of America,
Very few models in the literature on HIV consider partnership networks,
specifically partnership concurrency, for simulating transmissions. We evaluate
the differences in estimated new infections with and without inclusion of
concurrency by modeling sexual behavior among the different risk groups in the
US.
4 - Impact of a Potential Human-to-Human Transmittable H7N9
Pandemic Outbreak in the U.S.
Walter Silva Sotillo, PhD Student, University of South Florida and
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, 4202 E. Fowler Ave,
Av. Universitaria 1801. Lima Peru, Tampa, FL, 33620, United
States of America, Tapas K. Das
From March 2013 until March 2015, WHO reported more than 640 cases (with
35% fatality) of H7N9 flu, most from the mainland of China. There are some
cases reported on February 2015 that cannot be excluded from a potential
human-to-human transmission scenario. We use data from recent reports and an
Agent-based simulation model to predict a potential impact of H7N9 pandemic
outbreak in the U.S.
WC37
37-Room 414, Marriott
Health Care Strategy and Policy I
Contributed Session
Chair: Jie Song, Peking University, Room 512,Fangzheng Building,
Beijing, China,
1 - A Manufacturer’s View of the United States Healthcare System
Kurt Masten, Drexel University, Gerri C Lebow Hall, 3220 Market
Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, United States of America,
The traditional and idealistic vision of a doctor making a house call to a sick
patient is not representative of how the process actually works. This research
takes a novel approach to modeling the healthcare system from a parts
manufacturing perspective that questions the typical assumptions of healthcare as
a service and the patient as the customer. Potential improvements are considered
based on JIT, lean, and other established manufacturing practices.
2 - Feedback of Standardized Clinical Process on
Patient Satisfaction
Yunsik Choi, PhD Candidate, Clemson University, 100 Sirrine
Hall, Clemson, SC, 29634-1305, United States of America,
, Aleda Roth, Lawrence Fredendall
To better understand the standardized clinical process that support or inhibit
front-line nurses’ patient care, this study identifies positive (e.g., task time
reduction & problem identification) and negative feedback (e.g., use of shortcuts,
perceived workload intensity) driven by the standardized process that affect
patient satisfaction.
3 - Supporting Health Policy through Modeling and Microsimulation
Steven Cohen, Vice President, DSDS, Research Triangle Institute,
3040 East Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709,
United States of America,
There is a growing demand for timely, accurate and precise estimates of health
care parameters at the national and sub-national levels in concert with data
resources to inform policy and practice. Critical measures include health
insurance coverage, health care utilization, and expenditures. This presentation
will focus on issues of data quality and the statistical integrity of modeling efforts.
4 - Is the Public-private Partnership Healthcare Program
Socially Beneficial?
Jie Song, Peking University, Room 512,Fangzheng Building,
Beijing, China, , Jianpei Wen,
Frank Youhua Chen, Yimin Yu
Motivated by the long indirect waiting time in Hong Kong’s public hospitals, a
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program was proposed for certain elective
surgeries, which consists of a government subsidy and a threshold number for the
waitlist. We propose a novel queuing model incorporating choice behavior of
heterogeneous time-sensitive customers through MNL. The customer equilibrium
joining behavior shows how the mechanism affects the overall social warfare in
the PPP system.
WC38
38-Room 415, Marriott
Optimization Heuristic Programming
Contributed Session
Chair: Jin Qin, Doctoral Student, Huazhong University of Science &
Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, China, Wuhan, China,
1 - Regression Based Relaxation Solution Approach for Fixed Charge
Network Flow Problem
Weili Zhang, Graduate Research Assistant, University of
Oklahoma, 829 E Lindsey St, Norman, OK, 73071, United States
of America, , Charles Nicholson
In this paper, a novel solution approach to the fixed charge network flow (FCNF)
problem named regression based relaxation (RBR) is developed. RBR employs the
probability of arc usage to form a new linear programming problem. Through
rigorous testing, RBR outperforms linear programming relaxation and relaxation
induced neighborhood search regardless of the complexity of the problem. In
addition, the improvement of integrating RBR in the exact solver is robust for
large FCNF problems.
2 - Travelling Salesman with Multiple Means of Transportation and
Switching Cost
Qiwen Wang, Peking University, Guanghua School of
Management, Beijing, 100871, China,
Yingjie Lan
We study a modified travelling salesman problem (TSP), where there are multiple
transportation means (e.g., by aircraft, train, or car) between cities and there is a
cost of switching from one means of transportation to another in a city. Not all
transportation means are available between some cities. We provide an integer
programming formulation, and design specialized heuristics to solve the problem.
3 - New Robust Efficiency Measures for Knapsack Problems
Christopher Wishon, PhD Candidate, Arizona State University,
633 W. Southern Ave, #1195, Tempe, AZ, 85282,
United States of America, , J. Rene Villalobos
New efficiency measures have been developed for solving all multi-constraint
knapsack problem variants. Using these measures, three solution heuristics are
presented for solving the multi-demand, multi-dimensional knapsack problem:
fixed-core reduction, genetic algorithm, and kernel search. Test cases have been
solved using these heuristics demonstrating that the measures can be used to
identify the same or better solutions than commercial software in a shorter time
in a majority of cases.
WC36