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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
In most of the cases, demand disruption is higher under the 1-day Design Case
compared to the 2-week Uniform Risk due to the higher demand level. The only
exceptions are in the Grey scenario for 2020 and 2025 when demand disruptions
mostly occur in Greece where the peak balance relies on LNG tank storage. These
facilities are usually not able to deliver at their maximum rate for a continuous four-
teen day period assuming that there will be no additional cargo compared to an
Average Winter day. This constraint is factored in the modelling approach.
The evolution of the European aggregated demand disruption under the Green and
Grey scenarios is very similar the latter being lower due to overall lower gas demand.
This shows that without new infrastructure projects demand disruption will increase
in the most vulnerable areas as a result of higher demand and lower indigenous pro-
duction. The commissioning of Non-FID projects enhancing market integration of
the most affected areas and additional supply in the high scenario will strongly
mitigate even if not completely under the Green scenario.
6.3.1.2 Geographical perspective of the Demand Disruption and
Remaining Flexibility
The demand disruption analysis of the European gas system covers situations of
high daily demand (1-day Design Case and 2-week Uniform Risk). The analysis is
being carried out with and without import disruptions (being technical or transit
ones).
The Remaining Flexibility indicator (RF) measures the resilience of a Zone. The
value of the indicator is set as the possible increase in demand of the Zone before
an infrastructure or supply limitation is reached somewhere in the European gas
system. This calculation is made independently for each Zone meaning that they do
not cooperate when accessing the European supply flexibility. The higher the indi-
cator value is, the better the resilience. In the case the RF is zero, the assessment
provides the percentage of the Zone demand which is disrupted.
This new definition of the RF better measures possible supply or infrastructure
limitations upstream from the considered country (see Annex F for the description
of the indicator). As a consequence, identified RF levels are lower compared to
those of TYNDP 2013. In addition, the new approach provides a better measure of
the ability of the European gas system, from a supply perspective, to meet demand
increases in small countries. Countries with large interconnection and relatively low
demand will have a higher RF.
In cases where the RF reaches zero, this indicator is replaced by the Disrupted
Demand rate (DD) of the Zone. The level of disruption derives either from a cooper-
ative approach (under the disruption cases) or uncooperative approach (under
normal situation) between European countries in order to mitigate its relative impact.
The following maps present results for the most extreme scenarios, which are the
1-Day Design Case of the Green Scenario both with and without disruption of Rus-
sian gas transit through Belarus or Ukraine. In case of disruption, the flow pattern
resulting from modelling minimises the demand curtailment by spreading it between
more countries. Comprehensive results for all cases can be found in Annex E with
the other import disruptions which are not inducing additional demand curtailment.