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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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Green scenario
In 2015 Europe is uniformly impacted by an increase in the price of Russian gas im-
ports. Difference with actual situation is explained by the assumptions of perfect
market functioning and single price curve for Russian supply. However, the Baltic
region, Bulgaria and FYROM are completely dependent on Russian gas and there-
fore showing the highest price exposure in comparison to the rest of Europe.
The high share of national production in Denmark, Sweden and Romania mitigates
the influence of a Russian price increase. Situation differs for the Netherlands where
a significant part of the national production is exported spreading its benefit while
the country is importing non-EU gas.
Between 2020 and 2025 under the Low scenario, most of the countries are less im-
pacted by the Russian price increase due to the improved availability of LNG. Most
of the Baltic States are also able to benefit from this improvement due to the com-
missioning of LNG terminals. Ireland reduces its exposure due to an increase in na-
tional production.
Romania becomes as exposed as the other countries as it starts to need imports due
to a decrease of national production. Hungarian exposure increases due to a high-
er gas demand.
In 2035, the exposure of the whole of Europe increases under the effect of higher
import needs and lower availability of alternative supplies with the exception of LNG.
The limited interconnection capacity of the Iberian Peninsula with the rest of Europe
maintains the predominance of LNG which limits the impact of the Russian price in-
crease.
Under the High scenario, additional supplies and interconnection provide alterna-
tives to Russian gas. As a result, the impact of a Russian gas price increase is uni-
formly spread across Europe. The Romanian Black Sea production benefits the
whole region due to the associated interconnection projects. But it results at the
same time in a price alignment of Romania with the other countries beyond 2020.
Grey scenario
In 2015, the situation is similar to the Green scenario. The lower level of demand in
the Grey scenario results in a lower exposure of Romania lasting until 2025 in the
Low infrastructure scenario. In 2035 compared to 2025 the lower demand reduces
the impact of Russian gas price increases.