62 / 88
Environment and Security
62
Caspian coastal regions, where most towns,
farmland, industrial activities and oilfields
are situated are exposed to considerable
fluctuations in sea level. Rising sea levels
and storm surges flood vast areas contain-
ing oil wells and infrastructure, increase pol-
lution and damage scarce farmland.
The level of the Caspian Sea has fallen and
risen, often rapidly, many times in the past.
The main factor affecting the sea level is be-
lieved to be changing climatic conditions, es-
pecially in the Volga river basin, the source of
80% of the water in the sea. Water diversion
and dams play a lesser role. Despite years
of research, knowledge of the factors re-
sponsible for fluctuating levels is still limited
and insufficient to make reliable, long-term
predictions. Researchers from Russia, Ka-
zakhstan and Germany have suggested that
the trend towards higher rainfall observed
since the 1970s in the northern parts of the
Caspian basin will in the long run increase
water flow in the Volga and Ural rivers
65
. The
likelihood of rising sea levels consequently
seems realistic
66
. Although such forecasts
should be regarded with some caution, a
wise strategy for adaptation would be to pre-
pare for the worst-case scenario of a 1–3 m
rise in sea level. Under such a scenario,
many coastal settlements could be flooded,
and agricultural land would be lost, not to
mention possible flooding of roads, oil wells
and sites used for waste storage and other
environmental hazards. All of this could be
further aggravated by storm surges capable
of raising water levels by an additional 2–3 m
in the most extreme cases. Littoral states are
aware of this danger and are taking meas-
ures to reduce the negative consequences
of such events. For example, planning and
implementation of coastal protection meas-
ures is already under way in the most of vul-
nerable areas of Kazakhstan.
The most recent 2.5 m rise in the Cas-
pian Sea from 1978 till 1996, when the sea
reached the highest level of –26.5 m, con-
siderably affected Atyrau province in Kaza-
khstan as well as Turkmenistan’s shoreline.
In the past ten years, however, the level of
the sea has been largely stable, even drop-
ping 1 m then rising again, following a trend
typical of seasonal fluctuation.
������������������������
����������������������
���
����
���
���
����
���� ���� ���� ����
���
���
�������������������������
��������������������
����������������������������������������������������
Fluctuating sea level and natural
hazards
Environmental degradation and security