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Eastern Caspian

65

Environment and Security

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aged to be restored and from 27 000 as

reported to the Soviet government in Mos-

cow in 1948, to 100 000 people lost their

lives as now officially recognized by Turk-

menistan, out of a total of 130 000 Ashga-

bat residents at the time (Nikonov, 1998).

In the Cheleken area powerful earthquakes

are significantly deeper, yet their magni-

tude could be high, with a corresponding

destructive potential. Parts of the South

Caspian region are seismically active and

may become the area of tsunami genera-

tion, if submarine earthquakes exceed

magnitude 7. Historical data contains evi-

dence of small waves of 1 m (Dostenko et

al 2002).

In the shallow northern Caspian Sea, the

risk of earthquakes and tsunamis is low;

but the risk of extensive flooding due to

storm surges is high. Storm surges have

the potential to severely damage oilfields

as well as populated areas and infrastruc-

ture, especially in Atyrau province. Moreo-

ver 0.8 million ha of agricultural land are

subject to the risk of storm surges. In 1989,

1990, 1991, 1993, 1996 and 2005 such

wind-induced surges of seawater pene-

trated 15-30 km inland and affected settle-

ments, oilfields (Prorva and Terenozek) and

agricultural land.

Regional or global epidemics could also af-

fect living conditions and livelihoods. The

risk of a possible outbreak of avian influ-

enza spread by migrating birds, millions of

which visit each year the eastern Caspian

Sea’s lagoons and bays, should not be un-

derestimated

69

.