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Environment and Security
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In Turkmenistan the impacts of the ris-
ing sea level are particularly apparent in
the Cheleken peninsula, where seawater
has submerged roads, a fragment of the
town of Khazar and some industrial infra-
structure. Other towns (Garakol, Ekerem,
Chekichler), oilfields (Goturdepe, Chele-
ken) and pipelines are under threat. In the
worst-case scenario (+5 m), the Cheleken
peninsula could be completely separated
from the mainland. Adequate adaptation
measures and coastal zone management
may help to prevent many of the negative
impacts of fluctuating sea level.
Finally, global warming is directly affect-
ing the Caspian Sea environment. Satellite
data and meteorological records suggest
that the extent and duration of winter sea-
ice, which covers approximately 70–75%
68
of the northern Caspian Sea, is declining,
which is consistent with regional and global
warming patterns (Kouraev, 2008). Because
of milder winters with higher than normal
temperatures, the extent of ice has been
much smaller than usual during the last 10
years. Such a reduction of the ice affects
the breeding habits and living conditions of
the endangered Caspian seals and the en-
tire ecological system (UNEP/GRID-Aren-
dal 2006; CEP 2007; Ivkina and Stroeva
2007). Under these conditions seals must
live closely packed on the little remaining
ice, which in turn facilitates the spread of
disease, including canine distemper virus
(Kuiken 2006).
It is worth considering the impact of natural
disasters as factors of increased vulnerabil-
ity and loss of livelihoods. Among natural
hazards present in the area, not only storm
surges deserve mention but also the seis-
mic activity and the related possibility of
tsunami generation.
One of the most devastating recent earth-
quakes in the Caspian region was the Ash-
gabat M 7.2 earthquake in 1948 along the
Kopet Dag mountains fault zone. Despite
being relatively shallow and localized, the
quake caused massive loss of life and
property in the capital of Turkmenistan.
According to estimates 90% of Ashgabat’s
buildings collapsed or were too badly dam-
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