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BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017
similar results. Also, in the case of gas supply disruption through Belarus, which has
a lesser effect on Latvia than Russian disruptions, implementation of the regional PCIs
significantly increases remaining flexibility. The obvious conclusion is therefore that
implementation of regional PCIs is essential to increasing security of supply.
Another measure of security of supply is the disrupted rate, which refers to the share
of unsupplied demand. The results of calculating the disruption rate for Latvia
follows the same pattern as the remaining flexibility. Currently Latvia would
experience a lack of gas in cases of Russian gas supply disruptions on peak demand
days, but no shortage of gas in cases of Belarus disruptions. In order to meet gas
demands in cases of Russian gas supply disruptions, regional PCIs shall be
implemented. The modelling method of BEMIP GRIP 2017 does not allow the
impact of different regional projects on security of supply to be compared, but it
shows that the construction of new and enhancing interconnections alone is not
sufficient to providing the necessary security of supply for the BEMIP region.
6.5 Lithuania
Remaining Flexibility
Under the Belarus supply disruption scenario, Lithuania will experience a remaining
flexibility of nearly 20% for the design case and 40% for 2-week demand in a
short-term. If supply limitations from Russia to the Baltic States and Finland are
considered, the remaining flexibility remains close to zero over the short term, i. e.,
Lithuania will hardly be able to fulfil its additional demand.
The modelling results indicate that the negative impact of disruption will be miti
gated if PCIs projects in Lithuania are commissioned. Consequently, the remaining
flexibility will increase for all infrastructure scenarios analysed in Lithuania.
From 2025 on, the Klaipėda LNG Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) is no
longer considered in the modelling of the Low infrastructure level. This is due to the
fact the FSRU leasing agreement will expire by then, and that the operator has not
made a decision on whether to purchase the FSRU (the continued operation of
Klaipėda LNG terminal is considered for the High infrastructure level). It will result
in a decrease of the remaining flexibility to almost zero for all disruption cases under
infrastructure scenarios modelled for 2025 (i.e., continued operation of Klaipėda
LNG terminal is considered for the High infrastructure level not taken into account
as a separate modelling case). Lithuania will not be able to fulfil its additional de-
mand even the GIPL pipeline is in operation.
Disrupted Rate
In Lithuania, the disrupted rate indicator is mainly relevant when the “No RU supply
to the Baltic States” and “No RU supply to the Baltic States and Finland” supply
limitations are considered. In the short-term, the disruption rate is under 6% for
design case demands through different scenarios considered. According to the
modelling results, completion of PCI projects in Lithuania will remove the supply
limitation, which will result in a decrease of disrupted rate indicator to zero starting
from 2020.
Due to the fact that the Klaipėda LNG is not available from 2025 (if the Low infra-
structure level is considered), the disrupted rate indicator increases up to nearly
20% if the design case demand is analysed.