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BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017
Executive Summary
The completion of the gas internal market, increase of
security of supply and fostering of competition are the
main priorities outlined in the European Union’s (EU)
energy policy. The Regulation No. 347/2013 on guide-
lines for trans-European energy infrastructure aims to
accelerate the development of infrastructure projects
having regional importance, so called “Projects of
Common Interest” (PCI) in certain priority corridors.
The second EU-wide List of PCIs was adopted by the
European Commission (EC) on 18 November 2015.
It consists of about 200 energy infrastructure projects,
including 10 gas infrastructure projects in the BEMIP
region.
If implemented, these projects will significantly change the gas markets in the
region, firstly by interconnecting currently separate sub-regions such as 1) Finland,
2) Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, 3) Poland, 4) Denmark and Sweden, and integrat-
ing even four Member States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) into a common
European gas market, and secondly by enhancing diversification of gas supply
sources (access to global LNG markets and Norwegian continental shelf). Since the
last BEMIP GRIP report, LNG terminals have been commissioned in Klaipėda,
Lithuania, and Świnoujście, Poland. Both terminals diversify gas supplies in the
Baltic Sea countries. For the countries in the region that rely, either fully or to a large
extent, on a single supplier this is a major shift, bringing from one side more choices
and opportunities for the gas market players, and from another side requiring
adequate changes in legislation and commercial practices of gas companies to
accommodate an increased market complexity.
With respect to the role of the gas in the energy market, the expected paths differ
within the region. Based on the demand scenarios in ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2017,
demand is expected to decrease in Denmark, Estonia and Finland in both scenari-
os: European Green Revolution and Blue Transition. According to European Green
Revolution, gas demand is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease in all coun-
tries of the BEMIP region except for Poland, where demand is expected to increase
in all scenarios. Poland, with its high demand, dominates both scenarios. From
2015 to 2025, the European Green Evolution foresees an increase in demand of 3%
in the region while the Blue Transition expects 33%. If the high share of Polish
demand is excluded, the total demand in the region from 2015 to 2025 is expected
to decrease by 11% in the European Green Evolution scenario and increase by 2%
in the Blue Transition scenario. This increase is mainly driven by an expected soaring
demand in the largest market of the region – Poland expects gasification of new
areas in the country, substitution of coal-fired-furnaces with the ones supplied with
gas and a wider use of gas power plants for electricity generation.