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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026
0
50,000
100,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
150,000
200,000
500,000
GWh/y
2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2019
2021
2018
2020
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Slovakia
Cyprus
Romania
Italy
Hungary
Croatia
Bulgaria
Austria
Figure 4.3:
National production forecast with and without the production of Cyprus
0
50,000
100,000
250,000
300,000
150,000
200,000
350,000
GWh/y
2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2019
2021
2018
2020
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Slovakia
Romania
Italy
Hungary
Croatia
Bulgaria
Austria
Image courtesy of DESFA
It has however to be noted that the estimation of the effective, and not only arithmetic,
share of national production on the Region’s demand depends on the final
destination of the Cypriot gas.
In fact, this gas will need to be exported but it is not yet known in what form (liquid
or gaseous) neither to which destination. Moreover, the quantities discovered so far
do not seem sufficient to make feasible the initial plan of installing a liquefaction
plant in Cyprus, however exploration still goes on and there are more promising
areas to be explored. Among the export schemes proposed are a pipeline to Turkey,
(a low probability option), a pipeline to Egypt, either to cover the growing needs of
this country or to use its liquefaction installations (an option with reduced appeal
since the discovery the Zhor gas field in Egypt) and a pipeline to Crete and on to
continental Greece, connected to the Poseidon offshore pipeline connecting Greece
with Italy (an option technically challenging). In order to enhance the feasibility of
this last option, Cyprus could team with other countries of the eastern Mediterranean,
like Israel and possibly Lebanon, so that a critical mass is reached that will increase
the attractiveness of such a gas export project. The number of potential partners and
the tensions inherent to this Region make, at this stage, any prediction on the
successful option uncertain. In the present GRIP the non-FID project of a pipeline
linking the eastern Mediterranean gas fields to Greece and further to Italy, proposed
by 3
rd
parties, has been included.