2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

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INFORMS Nashville – 2016
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2 - Gas & Power Markets: Forecasting Prices In An Evolving
Energy Landscape
Connie S. Trecazzi, Tennessee Valley Authority,
Environmental regulations in the energy sector paired with a tsunami of shale gas
have changed power and natural gas market operations. The shift in regional gas
supply is driving infrastructure changes. Lower renewable costs are impacting
capacity decisions and affecting reliability requirement decisions. Electricity
demand has gone through a paradigm shift as steps taken to improve energy
efficiency are realized, changing views on how to model future growth. In this
environment, having tools to evaluate the impact of changes in both the
electricity and gas markets and pass detailed information between the models is
essential to understanding how each assumption impacts both markets.
3 - The Clean Power Plan: The Art And Science Of Quantifying Its
Impacts Using Integrated Gas-power Modeling
Rahul Dhal, Developer, EPIS, LLC, 13535 72nd Ave., Ste. 165,
Tigard, OR, 97223, United States,
Energy policies are, by nature, complex. The mechanisms through which policies
attempt to bring about changes in the market regularly involve a large number of
stakeholders. Given the decentralized and interconnected nature of U.S. energy
sectors, it is very important to develop methods for evaluating the impact of the
complex energy policies. In this talk we present a method for evaluating energy
policies. Our methodology that integrates industry-standard modeling
frameworks for gas and power markets. The integrated gas-power framework
allows for evaluation of a wide-range of energy policies. We employ this
framework to quantify the impact of the Clean Power Plan on both power and
gas markets.
4 - Integrated Natural Gas And Electricity Modeling With RBAC
GPCM And GE Maps
Leah Kaffine, Senior Engineer, GE Energy Consulting Group,
Schenectady, NY, United States,
Natural gas has seen a steady increase in its market share as a fuel for power
generation, with continued growth expected. GE Energy Consulting has
integrated Multi Area Production Simulation Software (MAPS) with Gas Pipeline
Competition Model (GPCM) in order to provide a more detailed spatial and
dynamic understanding of the gas-power interaction. While existing models can
capture some market dynamics in isolation, the integration of MAPS with GPCM
allows for a comprehensive approach to understanding interdependent issues.
Ultimately Energy Consulting’s integrated modeling allows for a consistent view
of the future natural gas demand for power between the two models.
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101E-MCC
Power Transmission Planning under Uncertainty
Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment,
Energy I Electricity
Sponsored Session
Chair: Rodrigo Moreno, University of Chile, Av. Tupper 2007,
Santiago, 8370451, Chile,
1 - A Comparison Of Stochastic And Adaptation Programming
Methods For Electric Infrastructure Planning
Patrick Maloney, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States,
, Ali Jahanbani-Ardakani, James McCalley
In this work a recently developed mathematical programming formulation called
adaptation is compared with traditional stochastic programming methods in the
context of electric infrastructure expansion planning. While the adaptation
formulation structure resembles that of a generic stochastic program it deviates
from the temporal conventions of traditional expansion planning formulations.
Structural comparisons and simulations are investigated to better understand
differences in the methods.
2 - Value Of Model Sophistication On Transmission
Expansion Planning
Qingyu Xu, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218,
United States, Saamrat Kasina,
Benjamin Field Hobbs
A set of transmission expansion plans for the western North America
interconnection are optimized based on several variants of a 300-bus co-
optimization model with a range of levels of sophistication, including DC optimal
power flow, unit commitment and stochastic planning. The economic benefits of
increasing model realism are estimated. The results show consistent impacts of
sophistication upon transmission and generation investments, with load flow
representations mattering most.
3 - A Five-level Milp Model For Flexible Transmission Network
Planning Under Uncertainty: A Min-max Regret Approach
Alexandre Moreira, Imperial College London,
Goran Strbac, Rodrigo Moreno, Alexandre Street,
Ioannis Konstantelos
The benefits of network planning solutions have to be explicitly considered in the
context of uncertainty in future realizations of generation infrastructure. Hence
this talk presents a novel five-level model to determine optimal transmission
expansion plans under generation expansion uncertainty in a min-max regret
fashion, when considering flexible network options and n-1 security. In order to
solve the five-level model on large-scale networks, we propose an effective outer
algorithm.
4 - Uncertainty In Strategic Network Investment:
Stochastic vs. Robust Min-max Approaches
Rodrigo Moreno, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile,
, Goran Strbac
Benefits of transmission network planning significantly depend on deployment
patterns of electricity generation that are characterized by severe uncertainty. In
this context, this talk presents various approaches to solve the transmission
expansion planning problem under generation expansion uncertainty. In
particular, we compare robust and stochastic methods, and discuss about their
suitability to properly balance benefits of economies of scale against risks of
stranded assets.
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102A-MCC
INFORMS 2016 Data Mining Best Student
Paper Awards
Sponsored: Data Mining
Sponsored Session
Chair: Mustafa Gokce Baydogan, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey,
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102B-MCC
Joint Session DM/AI: Data Mining for
Decision Making
Sponsored: Data Mining
Sponsored Session
Chair: Iljoo Kim, Saint Joseph’s University, Philadelphia, PA,
United States,
1 - Studying Agenda Setting Influence Of Online
Newspaper Comments
Iljoo Kim, Saint Joseph’s University,
In this continued work, we study online comments and their influence in online
news articles. Using text-mining techniques, we attempt to explain and/or predict
influence of online newspaper comments on the context of the original article or
even on creating a new agenda through the discussions among commenters. This
is done based on the textual signals embedded within comments as well as news
articles.
2 - Crowdiq: Aggregating Crowd Opinions For Stock
Price Predictions
Qianzhou Du, Virginia Tech, 100 Otey Street, Room 301,
Blacksburg, VA, 24061, United States,
Hong Hong, Alan Wang, Weiguo Fan
The Wisdom of Crowds (WoC) theory explains how crowd opinions should be
aggregated in order to improve the performance of decision making. Diversity,
independence, decentralization, and aggregation are important factors to crowd
wisdom. Existing opinion aggregation methods fail to collectively consider all the
factors of crowd wisdom. We propose a new opinion aggregation method, namely
CrowdIQ, to evaluate crowd wisdom using all four factors. We apply CrowdIQ to
a stock prediction task using user-generated stock tweets. The result shows that
CrowdIQ outperforms baseline methods.
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