91 / 118
Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 |
91
7.1.4.2 Definition of scenarios
From the Portuguese and Spanish side, demand scenarios were stablished as
following:
In this joint study, each TSO determined the potential capacity in the 3
rd
IP PT-ES
for all the scenarios and considered the values of highest probability of occurrence,
obtaining the common capacities (lesser rule) shown in the following table:
The total cost of the considered infrastructures is approximately M€ 771.
The cost of the considered infrastructures for the 1
st
Stage of the project is approx-
imately M€ 189 and for the 2
nd
Stage of the project is approximately M€ 582, with
a total of M€ 771
7)
.
The outputs of both technical studies (capacities and related infrastructures) have
been considered in ENTSOG TYNDP 2017
8)
and have also been included in the
infrastructure chapter of this GRIP South.
7) 3
rd
Interconnection point between Spain and Portugal, technical study between Enagás and REN
8)
http://www.entsog.eu/publications/tyndp#ENTSOG-TEN-YEAR-NETWORK-DEVELOPMENT-PLAN-2017
3
RD
IP CAPACITY
2020
2025
2030
PT
ES
Final Value (GWh/day)
Spain
to Portugal
1
st
Step 1
st
Step
70
2
nd
Step
2
nd
Step
107
3
rd
Step
139
Portugal
to Spain
1
st
Step 1
st
Step
70
2
nd
Step
2
nd
Step
97
3
rd
Step
126
Table 7.2:
Final 3
rd
IP capacity for both directions (Source: TSO own elaboration)
DEMAND SCENARIO
DESCRIPTION
Portugal
Base scenario
Final Demand
Moderate economic growth, scenarios were built from the
forecasted values for summer, winter and peak demand for
2020, 2025 and 2030
Power Sector
Moderate economic growth and existing coal fired power plants
of Sines and Pego are not decommissioned until 2025
SoS scenario
Final Demand
High economic growth, scenarios were built from the
forecasted values for summer, winter and peak demand for
2020, 2025 and 2030
Power Sector
High economic growth and existing coal fired power plants of
Sines and Pego are decommissioned before 2025
Spain
Final demand & Power sector
Enagás stablished three scenarios in 2020, 2025 and 2030,
average winter, average summer and peak winter day
Table 7.1:
Description of demand scenarios in Portugal and Spain of 3
rd
Interconnection Point between Portugal and
Spain technical studies (Source: TSO own elaboration)