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The impacts of climate change may have severe
consequences for the people and environment of
the mountainous areas of the South Caucasus. The
characteristics of these areas, including high risk of
natural disasters, low resilience of local communities,
and the severity of impacts from anthropogenic
activities, make them particularly vulnerable. When
combined, these vulnerabilities and the effects of
the changing climate may lead to a deterioration of
economic activities (e.g. those related to agriculture,
The latest climate change trends
energy and industry), loss of human life, and change in
natural ecosystems. Temperatures are increasing over
the entire region and are expected to continue to do so
into the future, and while the trends and scenarios for
average precipitation are more varied, they are tending
to decrease. Extreme weather events are expected to
increase, thus significantly increasing the various risks
in the mountains, especially in relation to agriculture,
ecosystems, and human health and security (MoNP
2015; MoENR 2010; MoENRP 2015).
Armenia – Warmer and drier
Armenia has undergone significant warming since
the early 20th century. The highest rate of warming
was observed during the last decade. While the
annual temperature increased by 0.4°C between
1929 and 1996, when the data from 2007–2012
is included, the increase is between 0.85°C and
1.03°C (MoNP 2015). Summer temperatures have
increased the most, by up to 1.1°C (MoNP 2015).
Agricultural landscape in Armenia