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17
Observed climate
Observed
Temperature
Extreme temperature (+)
Ar
Armenia – Warmer and drier/wetter
The national trend of a warmer and drier climate that
has been observed over the last 80 years is forecast to
continue throughout the 21st century. Temperatures
are predicted to increase 1.3–1.7°C by 2040,
2.6–3.2°C by 2070 and 3.3–4.7°C by 2100 (MoNP
2015). Summers will see the greatest increase in
temperature, followed by winter. The understanding
of how climate change will affect precipitation trends
is less clear, but there is a general trend towards drier
and hotter summers. Pre-montane and montane
regions can, however, expect a slight increase of
precipitation by the mid-21st century (MoNP 2015).
Azerbaijan – Warmer and wetter/drier
The current trend towards a warmer climate is projected
to continue. Climate models indicate an average
annual increase of 1.5–1.6°C by 2021–2050 and 3–6°C
by 2070–2100 across the entire country. Maximum
temperatures are also predicted to increase and may
reach 47–53°C. There is less certainty about precipitation
trends. According to Azerbaijan’s Second National
Communication to the UNFCCC, precipitation is
projected to increase by 10–20 per cent towards 2050
compared to the period 1961–1990. Towards the end
of the century, precipitation is expected to increase by
20 per cent in the west and 80 per cent in the east, while
the Nakhchivan is expected to become drier with a
20 per cent reduction in precipitation in comparison
to 1961–1990 (MoENR 2010). Other studies, however,
predict that precipitation will decline by 5–23 per cent
towards the end of the century (UNDP 2011).
Climate change scenarios
Georgia – Warmer and drier
According
to
Georgia’s
Third
National
Communication to the UNFCCC (MoENRP
2015), the country will continue to experience
warmer temperatures towards the mid- and late
part of the century. Average annual temperatures
are expected to increase by 0.8–1.4°C by 2050
and 2.2–3.8°C towards 2100 (MoENRP 2015).
The temperatures in the mountainous areas of
the northwest of Georgia, such as Mestia and
Ambrolauri, are predicted to be among the areas
with the greatest temperature increase by the end
of the century. Data on precipitation is less certain
than for temperatures. According to Georgia’s
Third National Communication to the UNFCCC,
precipitation is expected to increase in nearly all
of the territory up to 2050, but then drastically
decline towards 2100. The exception is the central
part of the Likhi Range (Mta-Sabueti) where
precipitation is predicted to increase by 93 per cent.
According to a UNDP study conducted in 2011
under the Environment and Security Initiative, the
change in precipitation varies between 0–24 per
cent decrease towards end of this century. Both
frosty days and nights are expected to decrease in
Georgia, and frosty days will only be characteristic
for mountainous areas by the end of the century.
Similarly, hot days are expected to increase, mainly
in summer and autumn. The number of hot days
may double in some of the mountain areas, such as
Tsalka, Pasanauri, Ambrolauri, and Goderdzi Pass.
Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with a
concomitant risk of increasing floods, flash floods,
mudflows and landslides in the mountain are s
(MoENRP 2015).
Observed climate change and scenarios for South Caucasus
Observed
Scenarios
Observed
Scenarios
Observed
Scenarios
Temperature
Extreme temperature (+)
Precipitation
Extreme precipitation
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Increasing trend
Decreasing trend
Mixed trend
Sources : Second National Communication of Azerbaijan, 2010; Third National Communication of Armenia, 2015; Third National
Communication of Georgia, 2015; ENVSEC and UNDP, 2011.