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nature of ecosystems gives no consideration to human
borders, and the shifting geography of ecosystems can,
therefore, have a significant impact when assessing the
changes within national parks and other territories
defined by humans. One example is how the changing
ecosystems will impact the Lake Arpi National Park
in Armenia, situated at an altitude of around 2000
m. Here, the altered conditions could be beneficial
for the Asia Minor ground squirrel (
Spermophilus
xanthoprymnus
), Transcaucasian water shrew
(
Neomys schelkovnikovi
), Eurasian otter (
Lutra lutra
),
Dalmatian pelican (
Pelecanus crispus
), Corncrake
(
Crex crex
), marbled polecat (
Vormela peregusna
)
and Armenian sea-gull (
Larus armeniacus
). Other
species, however, such as the Black stork (
Ciconia
nigra
) and Common crane (
Grus grus
) are likely to
decline due to the altered ecosystems. This scenario,
however, gives no indication on how these species are
changing outside the borders of the national park, and
emphasizes the necessity of not limiting ecosystem and
species assessments to only anthropogenic borders.
Species in mountain ecosystems are vulnerable
to changes in climate, as they tend to thrive in
fairly narrow climatic zones. While there is limited
data available on the impact of climate change on
species in the South Caucasus Mountains, Armenia’s
Third National Communication provides some
information. According to the report, climate change
will likely have a significant impact on 238 plant
species out of the 452 species described in Armenia’s
2011 Plant Red Data Book (MoNP 2015). Changes in
habitats may result in population reductions and the
threat of species extinction in Armenia. For another
140 plant species (thermophilic species), warmer
temperatures will expand the area suitable for growth.
Some vertebrate animals, such as the minor ground
squirrel, grey pochard, corncrake, otter and water
shrew, may also benefit from improved conditions
for feeding and breeding, as well as a larger habitat.
Aquatic ecosystems in the South Caucasus, and
especially mountainous, glacier ecosystems, are
particularly vulnerable to the predicted continuation
of warmer temperatures (Shahgedanova
et al
. 2009).
Only the Greater Caucasus Mountains supports
the formation of glaciers in the region (there are no
glaciers in Armenia). Georgia has the largest glaciated
area and the greatest number of glaciers. Research
shows that between 1985 and 2000, the glaciated areas
in the region decreased by 10 per cent. According
to the study, glacier melting is driven primarily by
temperatures that have been warming since the 1970s
and especially since the mid-1990s (Stokes
et al
.
2006).
7
More specific examples include the decrease
of glaciers in the Gusarchay Basin in Azerbaijan from
4.9 to 2.4 square km over the past 110 years (MoENR
2010). In Georgia, all glaciers on the southern slope
have retreated due to climate change. The Chalaati
glacier, for example, retreated by 436 m between
Adishi Glacier in Georgia