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24
1974 and 2011, while the Tviberi glacier, the largest
in Georgia, has decreased from 43.1 square km to
23 square km. The glacial retreat has caused sections
of the glaciers to disconnect from each other, such as
the Kvitlodi glacier that is now 800–900 m away from
the main Tviberi glacier (Gobejishvili
et al
. 2012).
Warmer temperatures, increasing evaporation and
decreased precipitation will lead to decreased water
availability, crucial to sustaining the health of aquatic
ecosystems, as well as meeting the water needs for
energy, agriculture, industries and domestic use
(Stoke
et al
. 2006; MoENR 2010; MoENRP 2015).
The glacial runoff from the Inguri River in Georgia,
for example, is predicted to decrease by 40 per cent
by the end of the century as compared to 2010. As a
result, the annual river runoff will decrease by about
13 per cent (MoENRP 2015). A study conducted by
UNDP in 2011 called “Regional Climate Change
Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region” found
that water flow of three trans-boundary river basins
fed by glacier runoff and/or snowmelt are likely to
decrease due to declining precipitation and increased
temperatures by the end of the century. The basins are
the Alazani (Gamik) (expected reduced water flow of
26–30 per cent), Khrami-Debed (expected reduced
water flow of 45–66 per cent) and Aghstev (expected
reduced water flow of 59–72 per cent) (UNDP 2011).
While there are no glaciers in the Lesser Caucasus
Mountains, higher temperatures and less precipitation
will also reduce water flow in rivers and lakes (UNDP
2011; MoNP 2015). The water level of Lake Sevan, for
example, Armenia’smost important aquatic ecosystem,
is expected to recede due to a 40 per cent reduction in
the water flow from the 28 rivers and streams that flow
into the lake (MoNP 2009). Warmer temperatures
are also likely to affect species in aquatic ecosystems.
The expected increase in water temperature of Lake
Sevan is predicted to increase by 3.6–4°C by 2100,
causing serious damage to the whitefish (Coregonus
lavaretus) population, the most dominant fish species
of the lake (MoNP 2015).
Agriculture in the Ararat valley, Armenia
Yerevan
Gyumri
Spitak
Armavir
Alaverdi
Gori
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Mestia
Bakuriani
Gudauri
Akhaltsikhe
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Ganja Mingachevir
Shaki
Goris
Kapan
Sumgayit
Guba
Neftchala
Lankaran
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchyvan
Batumi
Van
Poti
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nakhchyvan
(Azerbaijan)
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORG I A
ARMENIA
AZERBA I JAN
IRAN
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
BLACK SEA
Lake
Sevan
Lake
Van
Terek
Sulak
Terek
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Ç
o
r
u
h
(
C
h
o
r
o
k
h
i
)
Debed
Mingachevir
Reserv.
H
r
a
z
d
a
n
K
h
r
a
m
i
Mtkvari (Kura)
Iori
Kur
Kura
T
s
k
h
e
n
i
s
t
s
k
a
l
i
Alazani / Ganykh
Q
a
b
i
r
l
i
Aras (Araz)
I
n
g
u
r
i
A
r
a
s
(
A
r
a
x
)
K
u
r
(
K
u
r
a
)
8
10
11
1
2
2
2
3
4
4
4
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
8
8
9
10
10
11
11
11
7
9
100 km
0
Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.
Sources: CEO-Caucasus-2002, UNEP; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, Autrement, 2010.
Hirkan forests
Marshes and swamped forests
Swamps
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Floodplains
Colchis forests
Conifers
Sub-nival plants
Glaciers
Sub-alpine and alpine meadows
Semi-arid steppes
Arid steppes
Humid and semi-humid forests
Ecosystems of the South Caucasus