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The South Caucasus region is highly exposed to
natural disasters and its mountainous areas are
particularly high-risk zones. Disasters prevalent in
the region include landslides and mudslides, floods,
flash floods, droughts, avalanches, hailstorms and
earthquakes. The countries lie in a region with
moderate to very high seismic activity and are thus
especially exposed to earthquakes that may have
devastating impacts on human life, buildings and
infrastructure. This seismic activity may also trigger
secondary events such as land- and mudslides,
avalanches and flash floods in the mountainous areas
(UNIDSR 2009). The 1988 earthquake in Spitak,
Armenia exemplifies the vulnerability of the region
to natural disasters and the social vulnerability of its
people. This earthquake, and the secondary events
it triggered, resulted in 25,000 casualties, affected a
total of 1.6 million people and led to an estimated
US$14.2 billion in economic losses (UNIDSR 2009).
Natural hazards
Large areas of the country are under threat from
natural hazards. In Georgia, almost 70 per cent
of the territory, home to some 57 per cent of the
population, is at risk from disasters, including
mudflows (32 per cent of the total area), flooding and
erosion (27 per cent), landslides (24 per cent), and
avalanches (17 per cent) (MoENRP 2015). Armenia’s
main threats are from land- and mudslides, primarily
on mountain slopes and hillsides. About one-fifth of
all communities in Armenia have been affected by
landslides. Areas with the highest risk of mudslides
include Vayots Dzor (100 per cent of area at risk),
Tavush (78 per cent), Syunik (70 per cent) and
Lori (65 per cent) (MoNP (2015). Azerbaijan and
Georgia also have a high exposure to floods. In fact,
the Greater and Lesser Caucasus Mountains are
some of the most flood-prone areas in the world.
In Azerbaijan, floods are most prevalent on the
southern slope of the Greater Caucasus and in the
high mountain zone of Nakhchivan AP (MoENR
2010). Droughts occur less frequently than floods in
Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan but the economic
losses are generally higher than those associated with
flooding (UNIDSR 2009).
While the region is naturally prone to many natural
disasters, climate change is generally expected to
exacerbate the frequency, intensity and severity of
such events (Ahouissoussi
et al
. 2014). The three
countries have already recorded an increase in natural
disasters. The frequency of floods, for example,
has already increased in Georgia and Azerbaijan
(MoENR 2010; MoENRP 2015). Between 1995 and
2001, floods in Azerbaijan occurred 2-5 times per
year but increased to 8-27 annual events between
2002 and 2008 (MoENR 2010).Themelting of glaciers
in the Great Caucasus Mountains also increases the
risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Between
1985 and 2000, the number of glacial lakes increased
by 50 per cent, significantly increasing the risk of
outburst floods that are devastating for downstream
communities and infrastructure (MoENRP 2015).
Since 1987, landslides have increased by 63 per cent
Damaged road in Georgia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Landslides and floods in Armenia
in 2003-2014
Sources : National Statistical Service of Armenia.
Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.
2005
2003
2007 2009 2011 2013
Case
Landslide
Flood