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COMMENT
August 2015
MODERN MINING
3
T
he power shortages now hitting
the Zambian Copperbelt which are
threatening – in particular – the
ramp-up of First Quantum’s new
growth projects are a reminder (if
one were needed) that electricity supply short-
falls are not just a South African phenomenon
but a continent-wide problem. In country af-
ter country across Africa demand consistently
exceeds what national electricity generating
utilities can supply, with the result that com-
mercial consumers of electricity all over the
continent, especially mining companies, have
to rely on expensive genset power to make up
the deficit.
This is not a new phenomenon – I can
remember making trips to Ghana, for exam-
ple, in the early 2000s, when mines all over
the country were battling power constraints
– but until recently Zambia seemed to be an
exception to the rule. It was long ago recog-
nised that the very ‘wet’ underground mines
of the Copperbelt – Konkola reputedly has an
inflow of 400 000 m
3
per day of water – could
not afford to have their electricity-intensive
pumping operations interrupted for any length
of time. In fact, the present Copperbelt Energy
Corporation (CEC) was established in the
1950s – it was known during this period as
the Rhodesia-Congo Border Power Corporation
– specifically to ensure a reliable and stable
supply of power to the Copperbelt mines.
The CEC – which in the 1980s became the
power arm of ZCCM and in 1997 adopted its
present name when ZCCM’s assets were pri-
vatised – is primarily a transmission company
(although it does have 80 MW of generat-
ing capacity to handle mining emergencies).
It buys its electricity from ZESCO, Zambia’s
state-owned power utility, so it can’t really be
blamed for the present problems.
ZESCO itself, which relies on hydropower
schemes such as Kariba and Kafue Gorge for
most of its generating capacity, attributes its
current inability to meet demand to drought
conditions. Whether this is correct I’ve no idea
but I’ve seen at least one recent article in the
Zambian press – by an ex-senior executive of
ZESCO – suggesting that the utility has exag-
gerated the scale of the drought and that water
levels in the Kafue River in particular are
entirely normal. Whatever the case, drought
is not an uncommon occurrence in Africa
and one would think that ZESCO – and other
utilities in Africa who habitually use ‘drought’
conditions as an excuse for erratic supply –
would plan accordingly.
There are some projects currently in the pro-
cess of coming on stream in Zambia, including
the Itezhi-tezhi hydro scheme on the Kafue and
a thermal plant in the Maamba coalfield, but
whether these are going to be sufficient to plug
a countrywide deficit currently estimated at up
to 600 MW remains to be seen. To give some
perspective on this, the mills alone at First
Quantum’s new Sentinel mine will consume
100 MW when the mine is in full production
– which is not far short of Itezhi-tezhi’s entire
capacity of 120 MW.
Moving on from Zambia to the continent as
a whole, one wonders where the electricity to
accommodate Africa’s high projected growth
is going to come from over the next few years.
The World Bank Group – in a report entitled
The Power of the Mine: A Transformative
Opportunity
, published earlier this year – has
predicted that demand for power from the
mining sector alone in sub-Saharan Africa
will potentially reach 23 000 MW plus as early
as 2020, roughly a tripling of the 8 000 MW
required in 2000. This figure of 23 000 MW
may not mean much to some readers but it is
substantial if one considers that sub-Saharan
Africa’s total installed generating capacity is
currently (according to the World Bank report)
around 78 000 MW.
On a more optimistic note, I should mention
that a just released report from PwC –
Africa
power and utilities
survey – summarises the
views of 51 senior power and utility sector
executives from 15 African countries, with
96 % of them saying that there is a medium
or high probability that load shedding will be
the exception rather than the norm by 2025.
A similar percentage says there is a medium
or high probability that, by the same year, the
challenge of finding a market design that can
balance investment, affordability and access
issues will have largely been solved.
I certainly hope the executives surveyed are
right in their predictions. The growth potential
– especially in mining – that could be unlocked
if the continent’s power restraints were removed
is truly huge. It’s probably worth pointing out
though that utilities around Africa – not least
our own Eskom – have consistently got things
wrong over a period of many years and that the
optimistic views expressed in the PwC survey
(while encouraging) should be treated with a
degree of caution. These are, after all, the views
of executives who are – presumably – at least
partly responsible for getting us into the pres-
ent mess in the first place.
Arthur Tassell
Zambian power problems
highlight
a continent-wide electricity deficit
The World Bank
Group has
predicted that
demand for
power from the
mining sector
alone in sub-
Saharan Africa
will potentially
reach 23 000 MW
plus as early as
2020, roughly
a tripling of
the 8 000 MW
required in 2000.