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Image courtesy of DESFA
6.3.2.6 Conclusions on security of supply related needs
The existing gas infrastructure in Europe - which is the majority of the low infrastruc-
ture level (along with the foreseeable reinforcements) - is already providing sufficient
flexibility for transmitting supplies to the demand areas in most of Europe. It also
proves to be highly resilient. It can stand a high number of route disruption situa-
tions (Langeled, Franpipe, Transmed, MEG), as well as for most countries the
disruption of the largest single infrastructure (N-1 for ESW-CBA situation), including
under a high demand situation. The assessment of supply source dependence (see
6.3.3.2) provides additional insight on the high resilience of the gas infrastructure.
Nevertheless the assessment of the security of supply related needs, under the low
infrastructure level, shows that some additional capacity could be needed in the
following areas:
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Croatia on the long run, if their demand outlook materialises
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Romania, if the foreseen increased production would not be maintained over
time.
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Poland and the East Baltic countries, which show needs for additional import
capacity from alternative sources to cover the risk of a Belarus route disruption
on the long run.
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Countries in South-East Europe which would need additional import and poten-
tially interconnection capacity (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,
FYROM, Hungary, Romania and Serbia) to cover the risk of a Ukraine route
disruption.
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Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, FYROM, Greece, Ireland,
Luxemburg, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden, and potentially on the
longer run Estonia and Lithuania, to cover an N-1 for ESW-CBA situation.
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The L-gas areas in Germany, Belgium and France to allow for the conversion to
H-gas and connection to neighbouring H-gas infrastructure.
The assessment under the different scenarios shows a sensitivity of the different
results based on the demand evolution. Where infrastructure needs exist regardless
of the demand scenario, the needs assessment can be regarded as robust.