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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
6.3.3 COMPETITION NEEDS
6.3.3.1 Access to supply sources
The access to different supply sources is a prerequisite for competition. The ability
to attract different supplies, as well as the volumes of these supplies
1)
, is taken into
account for the identification of diversification.
In order to give a geographical view of the diversification for each country, an aggre-
gated index was defined as the number of supply sources considered as significant-
ly influencing the gas bill of each country. This index is built based on the Supply
Source Price Diversification indicator (SSPDi). Calculated independently for each
supply source, this indicator measures the simultaneous ability of each country to
benefit from a decrease of the price of each import source. A country has been
considered as having a significant access to a supply source when the SSPDi to this
source is higher than 20%, which means that a decrease in the price of this supply
source would impact at least 20% of the country supply bill. Alternatively, an SSDPi
of 0% means the country gets no benefit from a low price of the concerned source.
The detailed results from Figure 12 allow identifying how a different threshold would
impact on the results. The approach is based on marginal gas prices and therefore
a country can benefit from a source when having the possibility to commercially ac-
cess that source. (see figure 6.11)
The SSPDi indicator must be considered keeping in mind the assessment is
performed under an assumption of perfect market functioning, explaining results
more positive than currently observed. But this way of quantifying the access to
supply sources is also conservative, in a way that supply sources are measured
against the whole European demand and therefore small sources have little influ-
ence on the result. This assessment continues the approach from the TYNDP 2015,
with the additional inclusion of indigenous production as a supply source. National
production does not only benefit the production country. It is considered as a collec-
tive good whose benefit is shared between countries as long as the infrastructure
allow for it.
The results are presented for 2017, 2020 and 2030 in the low infrastructure level
for the Green Evolution scenario. The results for the Blue Transition and EU Green
Revolution scenario show close results, except in 2020, in the Blue Transition
scenario, Greece, Bulgaria, FYROM only access three sources, and Romania two.
1) See Supply chapter on supply potentials retained