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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Maximisation of Azeri gas
The country level monetisation results for the minimisation of Azeri gas are only
shown for the year 2030, since there is no or limited Azeri gas in the years 2017 and
2020.
Since the Azeri supply is small compared to the European demand, the estimated
impacts of cheap Azeri gas on overall EU prices are small. A price effects (around
-0.2€/MWh in each country) can be observed all over Europe except for the Baltic
States and Finland.
6.3.3.5 Conclusions on competition related needs
The infrastructure gaps hampering competition are identified by assessing the ability
of countries to prevent a too high dependence to a given source and symmetrically
to benefit from diversified supplies. These results have been complemented with a
monetary perspective. The IRD indicator, by taking an HHI approach to countries
entry capacities, help support the analysis.
The gas infrastructure generally allows most countries to cooperate in mitigating the
dependence to a given source by ensuring access to diversified supplies.
Nevertheless the assessment of the competition related needs, under the low infra-
structure level, shows potential needs in the following areas, often resulting from the
same limitations as identified in terms of security of supply:
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Cyprus and Malta which are currently completely disconnected from Europe
mainland
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In the Baltics area
–
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Finland isolation makes it almost fully dependent on Russian supply
–
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Baltic States rely only on LNG and Russian supply
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In the South-Eastern and Central-Eastern area
–
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South-Eastern countries are highly dependent on Russian supply, with in
particular Bulgaria and Romania showing infrastructure limitations with
their neighbours
–
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Greece faces infrastructure limitations in sharing LNG with neighbouring
countries
–
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The Central-Eastern area faces an increased dependence on Russian gas
on the long run, highlighting the need for additional investments to improve
diversification of supply sources.
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In the Western area
–
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The Iberian Peninsula, which have access mainly to LNG and Algerian gas
when other Western countries access other sources.
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Some potential limitations preventing some countries with a direct access to
LNG to share this LNG completely with neighbouring countries
–
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At European-level, a general degradation of the diversification potential
over time related to the decrease of the European indigenous production