ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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24 | Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Supply
Figure F.1 compares the supply potentials developed in 2014 for TYNDP 2015 with
the actual EU imports. For Russia, Norway, Algeria and Libya those imports have
materialised in the range of the potentials as expected in TYNDP 2015. LNG has
shown actual imports below expected potentials.
National production expectations were part of the data collection completed mid-
2014. The observed levels have varied from the estimated plans. The production
cap imposed on the Groningen field in the Netherlands is the main driver for such
difference. The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs originally announced in January
2014 a production cap of 42.5 bcm for 2015. This cap was revised down on a num-
ber of occasions between December 2014 and until mid-2015, and was finally set
to 30bcm. Actual production in 2015 were reported as 28.1bcm1) .
As part of the TYNDP 2017 process, the supply potentials have been amended. In
particular, ENTSOG has developed a new approach to the LNG maximum supply
potential, making use of information from the IEA World Energy Outlook. This has
led to a downward revision of the maximum potential. During the stakeholder
engagement process for TYNDP 2017, the new supply potentials were presented
and discussed, resulting in further adjustment of some of the sources. The stake-
holder input also resulted in the introduction of a “tomorrow as today” approach for
the first year of the assessment, 2017, calculated based on the maximum and min-
imum levels observed for every source in the recent years, in line with the approach
retained in the Supply Outlooks & Reviews.
1) Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs/TNO, Geological Survey of the Netherlands.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
TWh/y bcm
TYNDP
2015 2017
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Tomorrow
as today
LNG DZ LY NO RU NP
0
80
40
120
160
180
60
20
100
140
Figure F.1: Actual EU Gas Supply 2009–2015, TYNDP Supply Potentials data