ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 25
Demand
In the TYNDP 2015, two demand scenarios labelled Green and Grey were devel-
oped using different assumptions regarding the global context and the evolution of
both the final gas demand and power generation sectors.
The Green scenario consisted of a global context with fuel prices based on the UK
Gone Green scenario from the UK Future Energy Scenarios 20141), which included
a high CO ² price and a reduction in the linkage between oil and gas prices. Final gas
demand was driven by favourable economic conditions, whereas gas for power gen-
eration was derived using a methodology based on data from ENTSO-E TYNDP
2014 Vision 3 “Green Transition”.
The Grey scenario consisted of a global context with fuel and CO ² prices based on
the IEA Current Policies scenario from the World Energy Outlook 20132) and with no
new political commitments expected regarding the environment. Final gas demand
was driven by unfavourable economic conditions, whereas gas for power generation
was derived using a methodology based on data from ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014
Vision 1 “Slow Progress”.
Figure F.2 shows the progression of EU level actual demand, versus the result of the
data collection under the Green and Grey scenarios, which was completed during
mid-2014. It is important to note that the actual demand levels shown reflect the
actual weather conditions, whereas data collected for the scenarios represents
demand under average climatic conditions.
There was a drop of around 11% for gas demand between 2013 and 2014 driven
by many factors, such as low coal and CO ² prices pushing gas out of the power
generation mix, a continuation of the slow economic situation and a warmer than
average year, leading to significant reduction in the need for heating.
EU gas demand in 2015 saw a 4% recovery from the previous year to 4,595TWh,
which can again be linked to a number of factors with sectoral differences at a coun-
try level. TYNDP demand data for 2015 ranged between 5,564TWh in the Green
scenario down to 4,600TWh in the Grey. Given the economic conditions, low CO ²
price and gas behind coal in the merit order for power generation, it is a fair assump-
tion that the EU was more in line with the Grey scenario in 2015, reflected by the
demand level and further influenced by a warmer than average year.
1) National Grid July 2014
2) International Energy Agency
Figure F.2: Actual EU Gas Demand 2000–2016, TYNDP Demand Scenario data
3,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
3,500
4,000
6,000
TWh/y
2000 2005 2010 2020 2015
Historic EU Green Revolution Blue Transition TYNDP 2015 Green TYNDP 2015 Grey