Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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3 - The Economic Effects of Interregional Trading of Renewable
Energy Certificates in the WECC
Francisco Munoz, Assistant Professor, Universidad
Adolfo Ibañez, Diagonal Las Torres 2640, Santiago, Chile,
, Benjamin Hobbs, Andres Perez,
Enzo Sauma
In the U.S., individual states enact RPSs for renewable electricity production with
little coordination. Using a co-optimization (transmission and generation)
planning model, we quantify the long run economic benefits of allowing
flexibility in the trading of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) among the U.S.
states that belong to the WECC. We find that up to 90% of the economic benefits
are captured if approximately 25% of unbundled RECs are allowed to be acquired
from out of state.
4 - Reliable Transmission Expansion Planning for Large Renewable
Energy Penetration
David Pozo, PUC, Ave. Vicuna MAckenna 4860, Santiago, Chile,
Alexandre Moreira,
Alexandre Street, Enzo Sauma
We presents a novel approach to jointly address transmission network and
renewable capacity expansion planning dealing with renewables variability under
multiple n - K security criteria. An adjustable robust optimization approach is
presented to circumvent the tractability issues associated with conventional
contingency-constrained methods relying on explicitly modeling the whole
contingency set and renewables generation scenarios. The adjustable robust
model is formulated as a trilevel problem.
MA62
62-Room 112A, CC
OR Models for Ocean and River Energy
Sponsor: ENRE – Environment I – Environment and Sustainability
Sponsored Session
Chair: Alberto Lamadrid, Assistant Professor, Lehigh University,
27 Memorial Drive, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, United States of America,
Co-Chair: Larry Snyder, Associate Professor, Lehigh University,
200 West Packer Ave., Mohler Lab, Bethlehem, PA, 18015,
United States of America,
1 - Portfolio Assessment of Run-of-River Hydrokinetic Power
Generation
Seth Blumsack, Associate Professor, Pennsylvania State
University, 153 Hosler Building, University Park, PA, 16802,
United States of America, Mehdi Shahriari,
Frank Liu, Ben Hodges
Spatially distributed run-of-river hydrokinetic power generation resources are a
portfolio of assets whose value varies with prices and output. We quantify the
locational contribution of hydrokinetic generation to the value of a spatial
portfolio and derive a variance decomposition indicating how variance in
portfolio value depends on variance in output, prices and spatial co-fluctuations.
Individual sites have nearly uniform value contributions over fast time scales, but
not longer time scales.
2 - Towards a Holistic Modeling of River Networks
Radu Marculescu, Professor Of Electrical And Computer
Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Dept. of ECE,
Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America,
, Diana Marculescu, Paul Bogdan
River dynamics are dependent on both terrain and environmental conditions.
While AR-based models can be sufficiently accurate for forecasting river
dynamics, we show that spatio-temporal variability can only be uncovered
through a multi-fractal spectrum formalism. Moreover, a network-based model of
cloud movement can estimate precipitation levels, thereby providing a first step
towards modeling the complete hydrological cycle and developing control
methods for run-of-river power projects.
3 - Hydro-structural Design Optimization for Marine
Hydrokinetic Turbines
Ashwin Vinod, Graduate Student, Lehigh University, 19
Memorial Drive West, Mechanical Engineering & Mechanics,
Bethlehem, PA, 18015, United States of America,
Arindam Banerjee
An optimization methodology for a fixed pitch horizontal axis hydrokinetic
turbine will be presented using a combination of a coupled hydro-structural
analysis and genetic algorithm based optimization. Preliminary hydro-structural
analysis indicates low hydrodynamic performance and high flap-wise bending
stresses developed in turbine blades. A multi-objective optimization methodology
is used to design a variable chord, twisted blade turbine which yielded improved
hydro-structural performance.
MA63
63-Room 112B, CC
Daniel H. Wagner Prize Competition I
Cluster: Daniel H. Wagner Prize Competition
Invited Session
Chair: Allen Butler, President & CEO, Daniel H. Wagner Associates, Inc.
2 Eaton Street, Hampton, VA 23669, United States of America,
1 - Using Analytics to Enhance Shelf Space Management in a
Food Retailer
Teresa Bianchi-Aguiar, University of Porto and LTPlabs, INESC
TEC & Faculty of Engineering, Portugal, ,
Elsa Silva, Luis Guimarães, Maria Antónia Carravilla,
José F. Oliveira, Jorge Liz, João Gönther Amaral, Sérgio Lapela
This talk describes a collaboration with the leading Portuguese food retailer,
addressing the allocation of products to shelves. The result is GAP, a DSS that is
today used on a daily basis. GAP has a modular structure and systematically
applies tailor-made mathematical programming models combined with heuristics.
It is able to incorporate different merchandising rules, allowing the company to
test several product allocation strategies with a trade-off between customization
and optimization.
2 - Strategic Re-design of Urban Mail and Parcel Networks
at La Poste
Stefan Spinler, Professor, WHU-Otto Beisheim School of
Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar, 56179, Germany,
, Alain Roset, Matthias Winkenbach
We devise a decision model that allows La Poste, the French postal operator, to
assess the benefits of merging the urban mail and parcel delivery networks which
used to be run as separate entities. Based on data from the French city of Nantes,
we find that merging the mail and parcel delivery yields cost benefits of around
3\% which prove to be robust under various scenarios tested. These findings
corroborated management’s expectation of cost savings and entailed a new
organizational structure.
MA64
64-Room 113A, CC
Joint Session DAS/HAS: Dependencies in
Pharmaceutical Portfolio Management:
Challenges and Pragmatic Approaches
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software, 6 State Street, Suite 308,
Bangor, ME, 04401, United States of America,
1 - Assessing Technical Risk Dependencies in Pharmaceutical
Drug Development
Elayne Ko, Pfizer, 500 Arcola Road, Collegeville, PA, 19426,
United States of America,
The presentation explores the process and framework of evaluating
pharmaceutical R&D investment projects with technical risk dependencies. This
occurs when either 1) compounds in the portfolio share the same mechanism of
action or 2) a compound is being developed for more than one indication.
Assuming probability independence and simply aggregating individual compound
evaluations into portfolio view would not adequately reflect the risks of the
compounds.
2 - Play the Portfolio Game
Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software, 6 State Street,
Suite 308, Bangor, ME, 04401, United States of America,
Phil Beccue, Elayne Ko
This segment will feature an interactive portfolio management exercise designed
to foreshadow and highlight the central concepts of the talks that follow.
Participants will work in small groups, selecting the best portfolio they can from a
pool of risky projects. Uncertainties will be resolved throughout the session, so
that a final portfolio value can be calculated. There will be prizes for the winning
team.
MA62