Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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3 - Global Uncertainties in Pharma R&D Portfolio Management
Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software, 6 State Street,
Suite 308, Bangor, ME, 04401, United States of America,
R&D portfolio management in pharma tends to be focused on individual project
risk factors, technical and commercial. Global risk factors affecting many projects
are usually ignored, on the theory that while they may change the value of the
portfolio they are unlikely to alter the project ranking. The possibility of far
reaching changes in government policy suggests that this assumption should be
tested. This talk examines the impact of some potential policy changes on a
notional portfolio.
4 - Manufacturing Investments in Pharmaceutical R&D:
Should I Pull the Trigger?
Phil Beccue, White Deer Partners, Westlake Village, CA,
United States of America
Capital investments to manufacture biopharmaceuticals require long lead times
and large expenditures that require board approval. These facilities produce
multiple products in highly competitive markets with uncertain demand, and if
not planned carefully, can result in a loss of economic value or inefficient
allocation of scarce resources. Based on recent case studies, we will explore how
decision analytics helps guide manufacturing choices.
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65-Room 113B, CC
From Value of Information to Sensitivity Analysis
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Emanuele Borgonovo, Professor, Bocconi University, Via
Roentgen 1, Milan, 20136, Italy,
1 - Importance Measures and Value of Information
Alessandra Cillo, Assistant Professor, Bocconi University,
Via Roentgen 1, Milan, Italy, ,
Emanuele Borgonovo
The importance measures are sensitivity indices. Despite their wide use, no work
has systematically addressed the relationships among them. We provide new
probabilistic relationships that link each measure to the remaining ones. These
new relationships also allow us to introduce new importance measures, value of
information based. We compare an importance measure and the value of
information-based measure, which depends upon the same measure: interesting
differences emerge.
2 - Integral Sensitivity in Linear Programming
Richard Wendell, Professor, University of Pittsburgh, Katz
Graduate School of Business, Pittsburgh, PA, 15238, United States
of America, , Emanuele Borgonovo,
Greg Buzzard
Herein we provide a general framework merging two well known sensitivity
analysis approaches, namely, the tolerance sensitivity and global sensitivity
approaches. This unification leads to a series of novel results, ranging from
analytical formulae for computing global sensitivity measures to conditions
ensuring that uncertainty in the parameters is immaterial. Moreover, the results
provide the basis for a numerical approach for assessing key problem drivers and
determining tolerance regions.
3 - Robust Importance Meaures
Emanuele Borgonovo, Professor, Bocconi University,
Via Roentgen 1, Milan, 20136, Italy,
Importance measures are probabilistic indicators that deliver information about
key risk drivers. They are defined for aleatory uncertainty. We show that, relying
on their probabilistic meaning, one can obtain a natural extension of importance
measures also when probabilities are not known.
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66-Room 113C, CC
Air Traffic Management and Airline Operations
Sponsor: Aviation Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Peng Wei, Assistant Professor, Iowa State University, Aerospace
Engineering Department, 2312 Howe Hall, Ames, IA, 50011,
United States of America,
1 - Modeling Airport Operations for Capacity Planning by Airport
Planners and Individual Carriers
L. Douglas Smith, University of Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, MO,
United States of America, , Jan Fabian Ehmke,
Deng Pan, Liang (leon) Xu, Ziyi Wang
We discuss a blend of statistical modelling, LP optimization and discrete-event
simulation that was used in the construction, calibration, validation and
application of a model for capacity planning at commercial airports. With results
from simulated scenarios, we examine the effects of changing usage of runways,
taxiways, ramps and gates under different traffic conditions. We also see how
concentration of activity at hub airports can cause flight delays to cascade for
individual carriers.
2 - Real-time Gate Assignment
Diego Klabjan, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208,
United States of America, Professor,
Due to unpredictable events airlines have to frequently adjust gate assignments.
We propose a network flow model that also considers crew and passenger
connections. A thorough computational study is presented based on data from a
big US airport.
3 - An Alternative Approach to Capacity Allocation at
Congested Airports
Amedeo Odoni, Professor, MIT, Room 33-219, MIT,
77 Mass Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, United States of America,
, Alexandre Jacquillat
Current slot allocation at congested airports worldwide is based on long-standing
guidelines developed by IATA. An alternative approach, developed after extensive
research, will be outlined: it is more responsive to airline preferences, integrates
airport operating capabilities, minimizes interference with airline competitive
scheduling and is based on achieving user-specified performance goals, instead of
being solely driven by arbitrary and administratively-determined capacity
constraints.
4 - Airline Passenger Origin-Destination Reaccommodation with
Spare Aircraft
Peng Wei, Assistant Professor, Iowa State University, Aerospace
Engineering Department, 2312 Howe Hall, Ames, IA, 50011,
United States of America,
The researchers at Amadeus have presented a method to formulate airline
passenger origin-destination reaccommodation into a multi-commodity flow
problem, for which they also designed the solution algorithm. In this paper we
consider the Airline Passenger Origin-destination Reaccommodation with Spare
Aircraft, which no one has tackled before.
MA67
67-Room 201A, CC
City Logistics and Sustainable Urban Freight
Systems - II
Sponsor: TSL/Freight Transportation & Logistics
Sponsored Session
Chair: Johanna Amaya, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th St.
JEC 4037, Troy, NY, 12180, United States of America,
1 - Public Sector Initiatives Sustainable Urban Freight Systems Part I
Johanna Amaya, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th St.
JEC 4037, Troy, NY, 12180, United States of America,
Jose Holguin-Veras,
Carlos A. Gonzalez-Calderon, Stacey Hodge, Michael Browne,
Miguel Jaller, Jeffrey Wojtowicz, Cara (xiaokun) Wang,
Daniel Haake, Ivan Sanchez-Diaz
Transportation policy should ensure freight is moved efficiently as it is a physical
manifestation of the economy. In this study, planners are provided with
guidelines to implement initiatives addressing freight issues. Initiatives were
organized as part of a continuum, from supply to demand side; underpinned by
stakeholder engagement. This paper discusses pricing, incentives, taxation;
logistical management; and freight demand/land use, along with a methodology
to identify potential initiatives
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