Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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4 - Optimize the Signal Quality of Health Index via Data Fusion for
Degradation Modeling and Prognostics
Abdallah Chehade, UW-Madison, 1513 University Avenue,
Madison, WI, 53706, United States of America,
, Changyue Song, Kaibo Liu
In this talk, a new signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) metric that is tailored to the needs
of degradation signals is proposed. By maximizing this new metric, we develop a
data fusion model to construct a health index (HI) via fusion of multiple
degradation-based sensor data. The case study was based on the degradation
dataset of aircraft gas turbine engines, which will demonstrate the effectiveness of
developed HI for better characterization and prediction of the health condition of
units.
MA75
75-Room 204B, CC
New Research Topics on Innovation
Cluster: New Product Development
Invited Session
Chair: Manuel Sosa, Associate Professor of Technology and Operations
Management, INSEAD, 1 Ayer Rajah Ave., Singapore, Singapore,
1 - Technology Readiness Levels at 40: A Study of State-of-the-art
Use, Challenges, and Opportunities
Alison Olechowski, MIT, School of Engineering, Cambridge,
United States of America, , Steven Eppinger,
Nitin Joglekar
Since their introduction by NASA in the 1970s, the Technology Readiness Levels
(TRLs) have become a widely used scale for assessing technology maturity during
new product and system development. We empirically investigate current TRL
usage in a cross-industry study, identifying challenges related to TRL
implementation and use in technology-related decision-making. Some challenges
are already addressed by uncommon best practices however others are
opportunities for new methods and models.
2 - Idea Generation and the Role of Feedback
Joel Wooten, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208,
United States of America, , Karl Ulrich
In many innovation settings, ideas are generated over time and managers face a
decision about if and how to provide in-process feedback about the quality of
submissions. We use innovation tournament field experiments to examine the
effect of feedback on idea generation and show individual-level differences
between no feedback, random feedback, and directed feedback.
3 - Sole Inventor vs Team of Inventors: What’s Best?
Tian Chan, INSEAD, 1 Ayer Rajah Avenue, Singapore, 138676,
Singapore, ,
Jurgen Mihm, Manuel Sosa
History has often attributed sole individuals as the source of innovative
breakthroughs. However, recent research has shown that teams of individuals are
the ones that tend to produce breakthroughs. In this work we use patent data
covering both function and form to systematically analyze the source of successful
innovations. Our work moves towards reconciling the sole versus team
conundrum by finding evidence of situations where the sole individual shine, and
of situations where they do not.
MA76
76-Room 204C, CC
Simulation Optimization and Ranking and Selection
Sponsor: Simulation
Sponsored Session
Chair: Demet Batur, Assistant Professor, University of Nebraska-
Lincoln, CBA 209, Lincoln, NE, 68588, United States of America,
1 - Probability of Correct Selection: More May Not Be Better!
Yijie Peng, Fudan University, School of Management, Shanghai,
China, , Michael Fu, Jianqiang Hu,
Chun-hung Chen
We present a simple counterexample where the probability of correct selection
decreases with additional sampling under certain allocation schemes. We then
characterize the general setting where this phenomenon may occur, which
highlights the importance of an appropriate allocation scheme. Simulation
experiments illustrate our findings.
2 - Asymptotic Validity of the Bayes-inspired Indifference
Zone Procedure
Saul Toscano-palmerin, 113 Lake Street, Ithaca, NY, 14850,
United States of America, , Peter Frazier
This talk considers the indifference-zone (IZ) formulation of the ranking and
selection problem. Conservatism leads classical IZ procedures to take too many
samples in problems with many alternatives. The Bayes-inspired Indifference
Zone (BIZ) procedure, proposed in Frazier (2014), is less conservative than
previous procedures, but its proof of validity requires strong assumptions. In this
talk, we present a new proof of asymptotic validity that relaxes these
assumptions.
3 - Reconstructing Input Models via Simulation Optimization
Aleksandrina Goeva, Boston University, 111 Cummington Mall,
Boston, MA, 02215, United States of America,
Henry Lam, Bo Zhang
We consider the inverse problem of calibrating the distribution of a stochastic
input model from only output data, in contexts where the input-output relation is
accessible via stochastic simulation. We take a nonparametric approach, and
formulate this problem as a stochastic program by maximizing the entropy of the
input distribution subject to moment or tail-probability matching between
simulation and empirical output. We propose an iterative scheme to
approximately solve the program.
4 - Quantile Based Comparison for System Selection
Demet Batur, Assistant Professor, University of Nebraska-Lincoln,
CBA 209, Lincoln, NE, 68588, United States of America,
Fred Choobineh
We present a fully-sequential selection procedure for comparing simulated
systems based on a quantile of interest. The quantile of interest corresponds to a
specific quantile of the simulated probability distribution of a comparison metric.
The procedure is designed to asymptotically guarantee the selection of the best
system or the best set of equivalent systems with a pre-specified probability of
correct selection.
MA77
77-Room 300, CC
Supply Chain Management V
Contributed Session
Chair: Pritha Dutta, Doctoral Student, University of Massachusetts,
Amherst, Isenberg School of Management, Amherst, MA, 01003,
United States of America,
1 - The Value of Conversion for a Refinery Firm with Both Forward
and Spot Procurement
Mengmiao Chen, Fudan University, Lidasan Building, School of
Management, 670 Guishun Rd, Yangpu District, Shanghai, China,
Our work analyzes the optimal procurement strategy, processing, and production
decision of a refinery firm with both forward and spot procurement (hereafter,
“dual sourcing”). Also the firm is capable of converting which improves the
quality. A four-stage stochastic model is applied to investigate the value of dual
sourcing and conversion. We find that both dual sourcing and conversion adds
value to the refinery by improving the quality, unit profit, and enlarging the
feasible producing region.
2 - Do Responsible Buyers Source from Responsible Suppliers?
Hsiao-Hui Lee, Assistant Professor, University of Hong Kong, KKL
814 School of Business, Hong Kong - ROC,
I examine the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in supply-chain
formation. I first introduce the CSR similarity between buyers and suppliers as a
selection criterion and examine why good (bad) buyers source from good (bad)
suppliers. However, concerns over sourcing cost moderates the CSR similarity
effect for good buyers, explaining why good buyers buy from bad suppliers.
Supplier transparency (CSR signals) serves as a moderator to explain why bad
buyers buy from good suppliers.
3 - The Effect of Commitment Completeness on Opportunism
Alex Scott, Penn State University, 463A Business Building,
University Park, PA, 16802, United States of America,
Buyers often solicit non-contractual commitments from suppliers to provide
services as the need arises. The level of detail of these commitments vary because,
ceteris paribus, more detailed commitments are costlier and more time-
consuming to develop than less detailed commitments. In this study, we examine
how commitment completeness interacts with active and passive opportunism.
We explore this question using a transactional dataset in the for-hire trucking
sector.
MA77