Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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63-Room 112B, CC
KINFORMS Sponsored Session
Sponsor: KINFORMS
Sponsored Session
Chair: Chang Won Lee, Corresponding Author, Hanyang University,
School of Business, Seoul, 133-791, Korea, Republic of,
1 - Study on the Supply Chain Management Critical Success
Factors (csf)
Chang Won Lee, Corresponding Author, Hanyang University,
School of Business, Seoul, 133-791, Korea, Republic of,
, Gary Gaukler
For many companies, managing their supply chain has become increasingly
central to their business success. Thus, it is crucial to investigate and identify
appropriate supply chain practices for today’s business environment. We call these
practices, the Critical Success Factors (CSF) for supply chain management (SCM).
Appropriate measures are developed and tested with a questionnaire survey. The
results of the empirical analysis confirm that SCM-CSF can be conceptualized.
2 - Retailer’s Optimal Sourcing Strategy under Consumer Stockpiling:
A Risk Management Approach
Jiho Yoon, Michigan State University, N468 North Business
Complex, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824-
1121, United States of America,
Ram Narasimhan, Myungkyo Kim
We study a retailer’s sourcing strategy under consumers’ stockpiling behavior and
the factors associated with the selection of an optimal strategy in multi-tier supply
chains in the presence of supply disruption risk. Stockpiling behavior occurs
when consumers attempt to mitigate the negative impact of a supply shortage.
Our analysis shows that optimal sourcing strategy is highly dependent on multiple
factors.
3 - Relationships in Servitization, Satisfaction and Intention to Reuse:
Customers’ Perspective
Sang Hyung Ahn, Professor, Seoul National University, Graduate
School of Business, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, ,
Chang Won Lee
This study presents to find out a relationship among characteristics of
servitization, satisfaction and intention to reuse in terms of customers’
perspective. The results were examined to identify significant factors affecting
servitization, satisfaction and intention to reuse. The study provides decision-
makers with more accurate information to develop appropriate servitization
practices in terms of customers perspective.
4 - Industrialization, Productivity and the Shift to Services
and Information
Hosun Rhim, Professor Of Logistics, Service, And Operations
Management, Korea University Business School, Anam-dong,
Seongbuk-gu, 136-701, Seoul, Korea, Republic of,
, Uday Karmarkar, Kihoon Kim
The traditional explanation for the shift to services was the steady growth of
manufacturing productivity. But this does not explain the initial growth in
manufacturing, or that of information intensive services relative to physical
services. The authors adduce a second factor that explains both trends: the
relative maturity of a market.
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64-Room 113A, CC
The Journey to Organizational Decision Quality (ODQ)
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Carl Spetzler, CEO, Strategic Decisions Group, 745 Emerson
Street, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of America,
1 - Progress in the Adoption of ODQ (Organizational Decision Quality)
Carl Spetzler, CEO, Strategic Decisions Group, 745 Emerson
Street, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of America,
To set the stage for the following speakers, this session will provide a quick review
of ODQ, the ODQ maturity curve, and the progress that companies are making on
the journey to ODQ. After the following speakers, we will have a panel discussion
on the challenges faced by champions on the journey to ODQ and how they are
best met.
2 - Lessons Learned Deploying ODG
Larry Neal, Independent, 3667 Cantelow Rd, Vacaville, CA,
95688, United States of America, ,
Frank Koch
A panel of seasoned practitioners will discuss the lessons learned in deploying the
concepts of Decision Quality throughout their organization, or ODQ. After brief
opening remarks, the panel will discuss the learnings both positive and negative,
of their experiences. The focus of this session is to help other institutions follow
suit and raise the bar on their organization decision making practices. Attendees
will come away with readily usable insights and tips for their own use.
3 - Applying Decision Analysis at Pfizer – Lessons Learned from
the Field
Rodger Thompson, Sr. Director/team Leader, Pfizer, Inc., 500
Arcola Road, Collegeville, PA, 19426, United States of America,
This presentation will discuss the journey that the Portfolio and Decision Analysis
(PDA) group at Pfizer has undertaken to bring decision excellence to the Pfizer
organization. The discussion will focus on lessons learned on adapting the Dialog
Decision Process to Pfizer to enable integration of the six components of decision
quality.
TA65
65-Room 113B, CC
Recent Findings and Experiences in
Probability Elicitation
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Saurabh Bansal, Assistant Professor, Penn State Univrsity, 405
Business Building, University Park, PA, 16802, United States of
America,
1 - Indirect Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities through
Pair-Wise Comparisons
David Budescu, Professor, Fordham University, 441 E Fordham
Road, 220 Dealy Hall, Bronx, NY, 10458, United States of
America, , Han Hui Por
We test a new method for eliciting subjective probabilities. Judges compare pairs
of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely, and by how
much. These judgments generate a matrix from which the target probabilities are
estimated by the geometric means. We compared the quality of our estimates
with traditional direct estimates and show that they were significantly more
accurate, suggesting that the new approach is a good candidate for replacing
standard elicitation methods.
2 - Eliciting and Modeling Continuous Forecasts
Joe Tidwell, University of Maryland, Biology/Psychology
Building, College Park, United States of America,
Accurate forecasting models for continuous outcomes offer many benefits,
including eliminating most close-call counterfactuals, better information about
tail risks, and the ability to obtain forecasts for any value across the range of
possible outcomes. In a series of experiments, we evaluate various methods for
eliciting small sets of judgments from individual forecasters regarding real-world
events and then aggregating these judgments over forecasters into continuous
forecast models.
3 - Estimating Continuous Distributions by Quantifying Errors in
Probability Judgments for Fixed Values
Asa Palley, Duke University, The Fuqua School of Business, 100
Fuqua Drive, Box 90120, Durham, NC, 27708, United States of
America, Saurabh Bansal
In many managerial decision problems, the distribution for a continuous random
variable must be obtained from expert judgments. Using a scale-free model of
judgmental errors, we present a method for estimating distribution parameters
through linear combinations of the judgments provided, where the weights are
explicit functions of the expert’s errors. Finally, we demonstrate the application
and benefits of our approach using data collected in an experimental study.
4 - A Turning Point Model Based on Exponential Smoothing
Xiaojia Guo, University College London, Dept. of Managment and
Innovation, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom,
, Casey Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We propose a turning point model that extends the damped multiplicative trend
exponential smoothing model. Our model offers the ability to dynamically update
the local level and the growth trend, and ultimately to predict the turning point.
This dynamic turning point model can be contrasted with non-dynamic models
that are popular in the literature, such as the Bass diffusion model. We fit the
model to several well-studied time series and examine the model’s performance.
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