Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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2 - A Revenue Adequate Stochastic Programming Market
Clearing Mechanism for Effective Integration of Volatile
Renewable Generation
Golbon Zakeri, Dr., University of Auckland,
Auckland, New Zealand,
Pentration of generation from volatile renewable sources of electricity generation
has substantially increased in electricity markets around the world. Various
authors (e.g. Pritchard et al and Morales et al) have proposed mechanisms to deal
with this however these approaches are not revenue adequate under each
scenario (although they are in expectation). We will introduce a variation of the
stochastic dispatch mechanism that is revenue adequate under each scenario and
present its properties.
3 - Parallel Computing of Stochastic Programs with Application to
Energy System Capacity Expansion
Andrew Liu, Assistant Professor, Purdue University, 315 N. Grant
Street, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States of America,
, Run Chen
Power grids’ planning and operations exhibit extreme multiscale, ranging from
hourly operation to decades of planning. The linkage between decisions at
different time scales may be relaxed to produce multiple independent
subproblems. We propose to use an augmented Lagrangian multiplier method to
design parallel algorithms to solve such multiscale problems. Convergence of the
embedded algorithm for convex problems will be shown, along with preliminary
numerical results.
TA58
58-Room 110A, CC
Topics in Oil, Natural Gas, and Alternative Fuels
Sponsor: ENRE – Energy II – Other (e.g., Policy, Natural Gas,
Climate Change)
Sponsored Session
Chair: Sauleh Siddiqui, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University,
3400 N. Charles St. Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218,
United States of America,
1 - Rate-of-return Regulation and Investment in a
Natural Gas Pipeline
Olivier Massol, IFP School, 228-232 avenue Napoléon Bonaparte,
Rueil-Malmaison, France, ,
Florian Perrotton
We examine the economics of a natural gas pipeline project provided by a foreign
private firm in a LDC. The infrastructure could trigger possible future
developments of the domestic gas sector. We address two questions. First, can a
rate-of-return (ROR) type of regulatory organization induce the firm to rationally
accept to build ahead of proven demand? Second, how far would the allowed
ROR have to rise for the pipeline design to be adopted be congruent with the
socially desirable one?
2 - Multistage Stochastic Model for Natural Gas Contract and
Maintenance Scheduling of Power Plants
Zhouchun Huang, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central
Florida Blvd, Orlando, Fl, 32816, United States of America,
, Qipeng Zheng
Natural gas contracting and equipment maintenance scheduling are two major
factors that affect the profit of a natural gas power plant. We consider both of
them together and propose a multistage stochastic model to address the
uncertainties of gas and electricity prices in the market. A scenario-based
decomposition strategy is applied to solve the model and the numerical results
will be present.
3 - A Crude Oil Market Model for the United States
Olufolajimi Oke, PhD Candidate, Johns Hopkins University, 3400
N Charles St, Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States
of America, Max Marshall, Ricky Poulton,
Sauleh Siddiqui, Daniel Huppmann
The United States’ crude oil industry currently faces infrastructural and
environmental challenges, as production surges and crude-by-rail shipments and
incidents increase. We adapt Huppman and Egging’s dynamic Generalized Nash
Equilibrium model (Multimod) to the US market. Thus, we can analyze the
transportation of crude oil and explore possible scenarios to recommend decisions
for safe movement, as well as gauge the economic impact of new regulations and
policy interventions.
4 - Volumes for the Renewable Fuel Standard using Multiobjective
Programs with Equilibrium Constraints
Sauleh Siddiqui, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University,
3400 N. Charles St. Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United
States of America, , Adam Christensen
We apply a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints to the United
States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in
releasing the 2014 mandate for the Renewable Fuel Standard. Our analysis
provides a variety of policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations
and is applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings.
TA59
59-Room 110B, CC
Fire Management 1: Suppression
Sponsor: ENRE – Environment II – Forestry
Sponsored Session
Chair: Vitaliy Krasko, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St,
Golden, CO, United States of America,
1 - Efficient use of Aerial Firefighting Assets
Matthew Thompson, US Forest Service, 800 E Beckwith,
Missoula, MT, 59801, United States of America,
This presentation will explore themes in measuring and improving the efficiency
of aerial firefighting assets. Insights from case studies in the US and Italy will be
highlighted.
2 - The Development and use of Forest Fire Detection System
Performance Measures
Dave Martell,
Forest fire detection systems are designed to detect fires while they are small but
concerted efforts to minimize detection size can enhance the performance of the
detection sub-system at the expense of overall fire management system
performance. We describe the development and use of a detection system
performance measure designed to overcome such problems.
3 - A Network Interdiction Approach for Mitigating a
Pyro-Terror Attack
Eghbal Rashidi, PhD Student, Mississippi State University,
1212 Louisville St, # 58, Starkville, MS, 39759,
United States of America, , Hugh Medal
We study a problem in which a group of terrorists seek to maximize the impact of
a pyro-terror attack by optimally locating the fire ignition points on a landscape,
whereas fire managers wish to interdict the expansion of fire and mitigate the
damage using an optimal fuel treatment plan. We model the problem as a
Stackelberg game and develop a decomposition algorithm to solve it.
4 - Machine Learning Methods to Improve Fire Suppression Policies
on Simulated Landscapes
Hailey Buckingham,
Claire Montgomery
Any policy which informs wildfire suppression decisions affects the future
evolution of the landscape as patterns of growth, harvest, and fire each adjust to
the influence of the policy’s fire suppression regime. Improving a policy is difficult
because the long-term effects may not be obvious a priori because present
decisions change future states. In this study, we use machine learning techniques
and monte carlo simulations of forested landscapes to improve a wildfire
suppression policy.
TA60
60-Room 111A, CC
Education I
Contributed Session
Chair: Nabil Belacel, Senior Research Officer, NRC, 100 des Aboiteaux
Street, Moncton, NB, E1A7R1, Canada,
1 - Co-Author Network Analysis of Operations Management Journals
Bonie(he) Zhang, PhD Candidate, Rutgers Business School,
1 Washington Park, Newark, United States of America,
, Yao Zhao, Xinxin Xuan
We study the co-author network of flag-ship INFORMS journals in operations
management such as Management Science and Operations Research. Our
empirical exploration characterizes the changing patterns of the co-author
network and provides insights to authors on how to improve productivity
through exploitation of the academic social network.
TA60