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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
1,000
500
1,500
2,000
TWh/y
0
100
50
150
200
bcma
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Maximum
Intermediate
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)
Figure 5.33:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Russia
Table 5.4:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Russia
Supply scenarios
While the supply scenarios for Russia considered in TYDNP 2013 were based on the
Russian Energy Strategy, the new scenarios are taken from different sources. The
resulting figures are not so distant from the previous ones. A detailed comparison is
shown in Annex C5.
\\
Maximum Russian pipe gas scenario
This scenario was directly taken from the estimated “Gas exports to EU” published
by the Institute of Energy Strategy (Gromov 2011).These figures show a shift in the
exports to Asia-Pacific. The figures between 2030 and 2035 are derived from the
2005 –2030 trend.
\\
Intermediate Russian pipe gas scenario
This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.
\\
Minimum Russian pipe gas scenario
This scenario was taken from a presentation by the Russian Academy of Science
1)
which represents the contracted volumes of Russian gas by Europe. This source
defines both the annual contracted quantities (ranging from 180bcma in 2013 to
near 120bcma in 2030) and the minimum contracted quantities (around the 85%
of the annual contracted quantities). The latters were the ones used to define the
minimum scenario.
POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM RUSSIA
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
MAXIMUM
5,177
5,499
5,768
6,036
6,304
INTERMEDIATE
4,549
4,554
4,450
4,184
4,318
MINIMUM
3,920
3,609
3,133
2,331
2,331
1) Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, Tatiana Mitrova, January 2014.