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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
50
100
150
bcm
1973
1975
1977
1979
1983
1985
1987
1989
1993
1995
1997
1999
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Sold and delivered
Reserves
Contingent resources
Figure 5.35:
Evolution of Norwegian gas reserves 1973 – 2013 (Source Gassco website)
Reserves
Norway has been supplying natural gas to Europe for over 40 years since produc-
tion began in the early 1970s. Since then, the development of new fields has enabled
the continuous increase of volume exported by Norway. However for the past decade
the sold and delivered volumes have progressed faster than new discoveries
(Reserves and contingent resources
1)
). Currently more than half of the reserves still
remain but the overall production is expected to fall below current levels during the
21-year time horizon of this Report.
One of the main challenges for Norway is to decide about the most beneficial way to
export the future Barents Sea production. An economical way would be to expend
the offshore network to connect these new fields to the existing grid and export this
production to Europe. For this solution to materialize, strong signals from European
market are expected. Otherwise production is likely to be exported to the global
market as LNG.
Supply Scenarios
The supply scenarios define a possible range of Norwegian gas exports to Europe by
pipeline; exports via LNG are part of the LNG analysis later in this Report. The
Norwegian supply scenarios are based on data coming from the Norwegian Petrole-
um Directorate (NPD) /Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MPE) and Gassco. The
potential range of Norwegian supply has been estimated as follows:
\\
Maximum Norwegian pipeline gas scenario
This scenario represents the highest export case defined by the NPD/MPE and
Gassco for the period until 2028 (undiscovered resources not included). To assess
a plausible maximum for Norwegian supplies until 2035 ENTSOG has maintained
volumes at the 2028 level.
\\
Intermediate Norwegian pipeline gas scenario
This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.
\\
Minimum Norwegian pipeline gas scenarios
This scenario represents the lowest export case defined by the NPD/MPE and
Gassco for the period until 2028. To assess a plausible minimum for Norwegian
supplies until 2035 ENTSOG has applied the forecasted decline rate between 2025
and 2028 to the rest of the period.
1) Contingent resources mean the estimated recoverable volumes from known accumulations that have been proven
through drilling but which do not yet fulfil the requirements for reserves