101 / 232
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
101
0
300
200
100
400
500
TWh/y
0
30
20
10
40
50
bcma
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Maximum
Intermediate
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)
Figure 5.42:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Algeria
Table 5.8:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Algeria
Supply scenarios
ENTSOG scenarios consider the interlink between production, national demand and
exports. It also covers the possible split between LNG and pipe gas exports.
\\
Maximum Algerian pipeline gas scenario
This scenario combines production projection from MEDPRO
1)
, demand forecast
from the Algerian Ministry of Energy and the evolution of the breakdown between
pipeline and LNG exports according to Sonatrach prevision. According to MEDPRO
the Algerian production could evolve from 89 bcma in 2013 to twice this figure
(160bcma) by 2030. Production has been extrapolated up to 178bcma in 2035.
Demand evolution follows the intermediate scenario of the Algerian authorities which
ranges from 36bcm in 2013 to 64bcm in 2030. These figures have been extrapo-
lated by ENTSOG up to 75bcm in 2035. The export potential is the difference be-
tween these production and demand figures. The share of LNG in the exports is set
at 43% in 2018 according to Sonatrach estimation. On the 2014–2018 period LNG
share is interpolated starting from 2013 actual value (25%) and targeting 43%.
Beyond 2018, the LNG share in Algerian exports is considered flat.
\\
Intermediate Algerian pipeline gas scenario
Compared to the maximum scenario, this one only differs in term of production
projection. MEDPRO figures have been replaced by the ones of the New Policies
scenario coming from the World Energy Outlook 2013 of the IEA where the Algerian
natural gas production would reach 132bcm by 2034.
\\
Minimum Algerian pipeline gas scenario
Compared to the intermediate scenario, this one only differs in term of respective
share of LNG and pipeline exports. Here Algeria exports mostly target the global LNG
market. This translates into a 90% use of the liquefaction capacity estimated flat at
38bcma.
POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM ALGERIA
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
MAXIMUM
1,241
1,342
1,519
1,559
1,559
INTERMEDIATE
996
1,033
1,045
1,001
965
MINIMUM
663
805
826
749
685
1) MEDPRO: Mediterranean Prospects, Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries,
October 2012, Manfred Hafner