104 / 232
104 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
60
30
90
120
TWh/y
0
6
3
9
12
bcma
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Maximum
Intermediate
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)
Figure 5.47:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Libya
Table 5.9:
Libya pipeline gas potential scenarios
Supply Scenarios
ENTSOG scenarios consider the interlink between production, national demand and
exports. It also covers the possible split between LNG and pipe gas exports. Remain-
ing uncertainty around Libyan stability and its impact on gas exports were not con-
sidered.
\\
Maximum Libyan pipeline gas scenario
This scenario has been calculated on the basis of the export capacity. The maximum
scenario assumes a 95% load factor of the Greenstream pipeline (354 GWh/d).
\\
Intermediate Libyan pipeline gas scenario
This scenario is the average of the maximum and minimum scenarios.
\\
Minimum Libyan pipeline gas scenario
This scenario is based on Mott MacDonald’s report of 2010. According to its low
case, the production potential ranges from 16 bcm (176 TWh) in 2015 to 20bcm
(220 TWh) in 2030. The figures have been extrapolated until 2035. Total exports
have been derived from this production scenario applying the minimum export vs.
production ratio of the last eight years (34% according to the historical OPEC data).
Then pipeline exports have been estimated at 97% of overall Libyan gas exports
(based on BP Statistical report 2012).
POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM LIBYA
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
MAXIMUM
336
336
336
336
336
INTERMEDIATE
249
255
260
266
271
MINIMUM
162
173
184
195
206