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108 | Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Table 5.11: Current pipeline infrastructure of Turkmenistan
(Source EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, January 2012)
In recent years, Turkmenistan signed several agreements with international compa-
nies to support gas production. Through recently constructed pipelines to China and
Iran, new export opportunities emerged. In July 2007, China signed a 30-year gas
contract with Turkmenistan to off-take 31bcma. In the years 2010 – 2012 Turkmen-
istan sent approximately 26bcm of gas to Iran and almost 40bcm of gas to China.
In 2011 this country contracted additional volume which could bring total exports to
65bcma in 20201) putting China on equal footing with Russia as destination market.
CURRENT PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE OF TURKMENISTAN
Pipeline Destination Capacity bcma Operation
Central Asia Center Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan 99 Since 1969
Bukhara-Urals Russia 20 Since 2001
Korpezhe-Kurt Kui Iran 13 Since 1997
Dauletabad-Khangiran Iran 12 Since 2010
Central Asia China
Line A, B 30 Since 2009, 2010
Line C 25 In 2014/2015
Line D 25 In 2020
The idea of exporting gas from Turkmenistan through a Southern corridor to Europe
is widely discussed but transport infrastructures are still missing. A possible oppor-
tunity is the Trans Caspian Pipeline (TCP) which would connect Turkmenistan with
Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea. The White Stream Pipeline project could then
transport the gas through the Black Sea to the European border with landfall in
Romania2). The alternative option would be to use the future Trans-Anatolian Pipe-
line (TANAP) but this will be dedicated to Azeri gas imports.
Supply Scenarios
Currently there is no facility to export gas from Turkmenistan to Europe and no Final
Investment Decision has been taken yet in any foreseen project. To derive an EU gas
supply potential, ENTSOG has considered information from IEA regarding past gas
consumption, projection of gas production as well as own elaborations on exports to
neighbouring countries. The following underlying figures have been used:
Two demand projections built on the basis of IEA3) historical data: one on the basis
of last 10-year records and another one on the basis of last 20-year records.
Future gas production derives from four IEA projections (WEO’s between 2008 and
2010) with extrapolation after 20304). Own elaboration of possible gas export of
Turkmenistan to neighbouring countries5):
\\Russia: Increasing exports from 10bcm in 2012 to 15bcm in 2025 remaining
flat afterwards. The rationales behind would be the increase of Russian
imports from Turkmenistan in order to hinder exports to the EU.
\\China: Increasing exports from 21bcm in 2012 to 35bcm in 2030 consider-
ing a partial use of newly signed contracts. Then exports are considered flat
afterwards.
\\Iran: Increasing exports from 9bcm in 2012 to 12bcm in 2035.
1) Platts March 2014
2) It has to be noticed that the Caspian Sea has a special legal status requiring that such investment is agreed by all five
adjacent countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan)
3)
4) Europe’s energy Future: Natural Gas Supply between Geopolitics and the Markets, page 48
5) Base values of 2012 are from BP’s Statistical Review