106 / 232
106 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
80
40
120
160
TWh/y
0
8
4
12
16
bcma
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Maximum
Intermediate
Minimum
Figure 5.49:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Azerbaijan
Table 5.10:
Potential pipeline gas scenarios from Azerbaijan
Supply Scenarios
Shah Deniz phase 1 production has already started and will remain stable and
limited to regional markets. ENTSOG considers as potential Azeri supply for EU gas
coming from phase 2 starting as of 2019.
\\
Maximum Azeri pipeline gas scenario
As in TYNDP 2013, this scenario is based on the assumption of part of the 6bcma
(66TWh/y) which were originally assigned to Turkey ending up in EU. Therefore,
maximum potential of Azeri gas would be 16 bcma (176 TWh/y). Two ramp-up
phases have been considered. A first one with the start of exports in 2019 and
reaching the 10bcma by 2022, and a second one, that starts by 2025 and would
reach 16bcma by 2028.
\\
Intermediate Azeri pipeline gas scenario
This scenario considers the 10bcma (110TWh/y) for the EU market as it was done
in TYNDP 2013. A ramp-up phase has been applied to gradually increase the gas
imports from 2019 to 2022.
\\
Minimum Azeri pipeline gas scenario
With the final decision of the aforementioned transit route, the likelihood of receiv-
ing some gas can now be considered sure. Hence, this minimum scenario has been
set at 80% of the intermediate one.
POTENTIAL PIPELINE GAS SCENARIOS FROM AZERBAIJAN
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
MAXIMUM
0
119
315
415
475
INTERMEDIATE
0
119
297
297
297
MINIMUM
0
95
238
238
238