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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
105
0
5
10
15
20
bcma
Production
Demand
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figure 5.48:
Azerbaijan's dry natural gas production and
consumption 2001 – 2011 (Source EIA, country
report from Azerbaijan, September 2013)
5.3.3 PIPELINE IMPORTS: CASPIAN GAS
Currently the EU is not importing Caspian gas. It is foreseen to become a new supply
corridor at least at regional level. For the purpose of this Report it is considered to
be the sum of the potential imports from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
5.3.3.1 Azerbaijan
Reserves
Azerbaijan’s proven reserves amount to roughly 900 to
1,400bcm (9,900 to 15,400TWh). The vast majority
of these reserves comes from the Shah Deniz field
which turned Azerbaijan into a net exporter of natural
gas in 2007. Besides that, gas is also produced from
the Absheron and Umid fields. Within the last decade,
domestic consumption has almost doubled. It will fur-
ther increase as Azerbaijan continues to replace old
oil-fired power plants with new combined cycle gas
turbines. In 2011, around 70%of the 18bcm (197TWh)
produced gas is for domestic use.
A large part of Azeri gas is exported to Turkey. The
South Caucasus Pipeline from Baku to Erzurum in
Turkey is the main export line. Some volumes are also
exported to Russia via the Gazi-Magomed-Mozdok
Pipeline and to Iran via the Baku-Astara Pipeline.
Shah Deniz Field
The potential exports of Azeri gas to Europe are close-
ly linked to the development of this field. Discovered in
1999, it holds approximately 1,000bcm (11,000TWh)
of natural gas reserves and its development is under-
taken by a BP-led consortium. Gas production began in early 2007 and has in-
creased since then. Gas is currently being produced under phase 1, which will see
plateau production at around 9bcma (100TWh/y). Phase 2 will then add further
16 bcma (176 TWh/y) of gas production, with first deliveries in the beginning of
2019. Therefrom 6bcma (66 TWh/y) are basically foreseen for Turkey and 10bcma
(110TWh/y) are foreseen for EU. According to recent information from the Shah
Deniz partners a possible phase 3 has been agreed. Reserves of this phase are es-
timated at 500bcm (5,500TWh), which would boost the fields total reserves to ap-
proximately 1,700bcm
1)
(18,700TWh). This phase would enable to maintain gas
volumes at peak level of 25bcma (275TWh/y) for an extended period but there is
still no final concept. As additional information is rare, ENTSOG’s interpretation of
phase 3 is that, this phase would enable the complete field of Shah Deniz to hold an
overall production of 25bcma. Phase 3 would then maintain the production level
from previous phases.
In recent months the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and Trans Adriatic Pipeline
(TAP) projects took their Final Investment Decision. In combination with the already
decided extension of the South Caucasus Pipeline, it is most likely that the gas of
Shah Deniz phase 2 will reach Southern Europe markets via Turkey.
1) Interfax: Natural Gas Daily, 14 March 2014