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ACTIVITY SURVEY
2016
page 40
Figure 29 shows the breakdown of Oil & Gas UK’s central production forecast to 2020. However, it should be noted
that the unsanctioned new and brownfield production opportunities illustrated could well be at risk in the current
business environment.
Figure 29: Breakdown of the Central Production Forecast
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Production (Million boepd)
Potential Unsanctioned New Production
Production From Potential New Brownfield Investment
Production From New Sanctioned Field Start ups (2016 onwards)
No Further Investment Base (Sanctioned) Production
Source: Oil & Gas UK
Figure 30 shows how the average production per field has declined from almost 80,000 boepd in 1985 to little
over 5,000 boepd in 2015. This is the result of the inevitable long-term decline of some of the biggest and oldest
fields on the UKCS that have long since come off plateau. However, the start-up of a small number of very large
fields between now and the end of the decade will offset this impact over the next few years. There are currently
just three fields on the UKCS producing in excess of 50,000 boepd but this number is likely to double by 2018.
The reliance on volumes from sanctioned new fields in the near term reaffirms the importance of ensuring
timely capital project delivery of new UKCS developments over the next few years. While Oil & Gas UK’s
central production forecast does account for the prospect of some delay, if the recent record of poor
project delivery continues, it will have an increasingly significant negative impact on the UKCS’ near-term
production profile.