Publication Name

Environment and Security

In the analysis below we will try to assess general patterns

and trends as well as enumerating and prioritizing specific

locations and issues that can be considered problem areas

or ‘environment-security hotspots’ from an environmental

and conflict-related perspective.

We will pay particular attention to the subnational level,

in particular vulnerable marginal land such as arid plains,

mountain areas with highland-lowland interactions and

transnational river basins.

Population of the Ferghana valley

Given the importance of agriculture for the whole Ferghana

basin, natural resources such as land and water have

historically been among the most important factors in the

region’s development. The size of the population depending

on these resources is consequently a key political, security

and environmental issue.

The Ferghana valley is the most populous area in Central

Asia

, with about 20% of the total population. According to

estimates it is home to over 10 million people. The Ferghana

territories account for 50%of Kyrgyzstan’s population, 31%

of Tajikistan’s population and 27% of Uzbekistan’s inhabit-

ants (although Uzbek territory only accounts for 4.3%of the

total area). In absolute terms, over 6 million Uzbek, 2 million

Kyrgyz, and 1.5 million Tajik inhabit the valley.

Population density is extremely high in the Uzbek part of

the valley (200-500 persons per sq km) compared to the

Tajik (70 per sq km) or Kyrgyz parts (20-40 per sq km).

High population densities increase the risk of depletion of

natural resources and thus of competition and even conflict

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Andijan produces much grain, fruits in abun-

dance, excellent grapes and melons. So many

they are that in the melon season it is not

customary to sell them out at the fields. There

are no pears better than those of Andijan.

Andijanis are all Turks; everyone in town or

bazar knows Turki. The speech of the people

resembles the literary language.

In themountains round Ferghanaare excellent

summer pastures. Thereand nowhere else grows

the tabalghu, a tree with red bark. They make

staves and bird-cages of it; they scrape it into

arrows. It is an excellent wood and because of

its rarity is carried to distant places. There are

turquoise and iron mines in these mountains.