Publication Name

Environment and Security

Regional context

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Output by the Central Asian economies dropped sharply af-

ter independence with a subsequent fall in living conditions.

Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas. Communal

services

have broken down in many areas. For example

several parts of the Ferghana valley, including cities such as

Andijan, Ferghana, Osh and Khujand, suffer regular power

and gas cuts, straining relations between the population and

local authorities, increasingly the focus of local protest. Only

recently has the economy in some countries shown signs of

improving, but high GDP growth rates have not helped to

reduce poverty and social inequality

. The economic crisis

that followed independence exacerbated economic dispari-

ties between urban and rural areas and between regions,

contributing to

greater horizontal inequality

between popu-

lation groups and regions. With several sub-state regions

becoming increasingly marginalized there is a risk they will

turn into “incubators of conflict” (ICG 2001).

Unemployment (both forced and voluntary) is high in all three

countries especially among young people and inmarginalized

regions

. OCHA estimates that unemployment is probably

running at about 10%-20% for Kyrgyzstan, 30% in Tajikistan

and 30%-40% in Uzbekistan. The job market is steadily

deteriorating. Moreover, in all three countries almost half the

population is under the age of 17 and will soon be joining the

workforce drastically increasing unemployment

Widespread poverty and unemployment have prompted

substantial

internal migration

frommarginalized rural areas

to urban areas (particularly capital cities). A second coping

mechanism has been the high level of

labour migration

to Russia. This mainly concerns men. It has worked as a

major safety valve for the region, especially for Tajikistan,

Kyrgyzstan and more recently Uzbekistan.

If we now look at the mechanisms fostering insecurity

discussed above it will come as no surprise that the cur-

rent situation in Central Asia displays all the factors that

encourage insecurity.

The period following independence proved amajor challenge

for the newly created states. Deprived of Moscow’s human

and financial resources the governments of the various coun-

tries had to cope with an accumulation of negative forces:

rapid decline in the living conditions of large segments of the

population, with a dramatic increase in poverty, unemploy-

ment, insecurity and inequality; breakdown of communal and

state services; enforcement of restrictive border regulations

impacting negatively on regional economies; emigration

of key minorities and the development of labour migration

as a survival mechanism for whole regions. This process

has gone hand-in-hand with high birth rates and increased

economical and/or political marginalization of groups (ethnic

minorities) and regions. Central Asian economies continue

to depend on extraction of raw materials and agriculture

(especially the cotton monoculture inherited from the Soviet

epoch). The significance of land and water has increased

considerably. Most jobs in industry and other trades have

collapsed or pay very little. In many cases agriculture is now

the main source of income. Under such circumstances we

may observe that all the factors listed in the table as fostering

insecurity (see ‘Understanding Links between Environment

and Security’ above) are on the increase.

A very beautiful stone, with wavy red and white

patterns, was found in the Bara Koh in ‘Umar

Shaikh Mirza’s latter days. Knife handles,

clasps for belts and many other things are

made from it. For climate and for pleasantness,

no township in all Farghana equals Osh.

The Andijan torrent goes to Andijanafter having

traversed the suburbs of Osh. Orchards lie along

both its banks; all the Osh gardens overlook it.

Their violets are very fine; they have running

waters and in spring are most beautiful with

the blossoming of many tulips and roses.