Publication Name

Environment and Security

Ferghana

Osh

Khujand

and extraction of oil and gas. Jalal-Abad is becoming an

important industrial centre, whereas Osh is facing industrial

decline, though it is still a key staging post on the transport

routes from the Ferghana valley to Tajikistan and China.

Batken

Batken is a region of special concern

established in

1999 after the incursions of the IMU from three former

districts of the Osh oblast. It is among the poorest

regions of Kyrgyzstan (Asian Development Bank esti-

mates that more than 80%of the population lives below

the poverty line; annual income is 30% of the national

average), combining the

highest ratio of unemployment

and one of the highest population growth rates (1.7%)

It has a complex political geography with numerous

border crossings. Three big enclaves are located in

Batken: Sokh (Uzbekistan), Vorukh (Tajikistan) and

Shahimardan (Uzbekistan). Transport of goods and

persons depends on the political climate and relations

at the border. In view of these characteristics the In-

ternational Crisis Group defined the Batken province

as an “incubator of conflict” in 2001.

for their control. The

strong population growth

observed in

Ferghana valley countries makes the situation worse. OCHA

(2003) cites an annual population

growth rate of 1.5%-2%.

Between 1959 and 1989 the population of the Aral basin

states increased by 140% and is expected to increase by

a further 30% by 2020 (O’Hara, 2002).

Rural overpopulation and an increasingly young population

put the whole region under demographic pressure now

and in the future. This situation is aggravated by the lack

of jobs and economic opportunities in general, especially

in marginalized areas.

At the same time, countries like Kyrgyzstan are undergoing a

process inwhich

only themainurban areas andmarginalizedar-

eas are registeringsubstantial populationgrowth

(Batken: 1,7%,

Osh: 2.1%, Bishkek: 3.7% in 1998, UNDP 2001). Interestingly,

the share of rural population grew here to 65.2%

in 1999. This

probably reflects the internal migration processes affecting the

least developed areas, especially the small towns where the

viability of whole regions depended on single enterprises.

The Osh and Jalal-Abad provinces are major centres for

cotton production and processing, hydro-electrical power

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Andijan has good hunting and fowling; its pheas-

ants grow so surprisingly fat that rumour has it

four people could not finish one they were eating

with its stew.