Environment and Security
12
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strengthening identities, both national identities and – for
many opposition groups – political identities too. Hence
Islam has at present a double role: as a stabilizing factor
as well as a mobilizing factor since opposition groups have
used Islam to channel grievances.
Finally
political transition and change
is an issue of concern.
Central Asian countries are still governed by leadership with
a common background and socialization. This has played
a positive role in averting crises and overcoming tensions.
But centralized politics means interstate relations depend a
great deal on personal relations within and between central
government circles and makes the issue of political change
extremely sensitive, as was evident during recent events
in Kyrgyzstan in 2005.
Economic factors
The rationale of the common Soviet market and economic
system has disappeared, forcing Central Asian states to find
their own position in the global market without the support
of a redistributive economy. Their geographical position,
landlocked between two economic and political “giants”
– China and Russia – makes their task difficult, especially for
poor countries. The five countries are differently endowed in
terms of natural resources, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
benefiting the most from their large energy resources (oil
and gas).
Control of such reserves and their transport
is a
key factor in the interest of neighbouring states (Russia, the
Caucasus, Iran, Afghanistan and China) and global players
such as the US.
Though there is nominal support for economic reform,
practical implementation of such policies has varied from
one country to the next, and within individual countries
from one region to another. The picture is the same for
issues such as land privatization. This phenomenon has
contributed to increased political, cultural and economic
fragmentation of a region
formerly characterized by con-
siderable integration in a larger market, with a single set of
(Soviet) laws and regulations and the redistributive benefits
of the Soviet economy.
Central Asia produces raw materials that need to be
transported over long distances to reach markets, local
ones being limited in size and purchasing power. Creating
national borders and levying customs duty makes trade
and transport expensive and difficult.
Restrictive border
management
policies and practices, combined with legal
and illegal levies and duties, have a negative impact on
trade and living conditions in areas such as the Ferghana
valley. Such practices favour harassment, corruption and
smuggling
7
and strain relations between the population
and border forces. Interstate customs agreements have
so far been ineffective.
All three economies are
predominantly agricultural
. Ag-
riculture employs 67% of the labour force in Tajikistan,
53% in Kyrgyzstan and 45% in Uzbekistan
8
. They all rely
on primary exports (gold, aluminium, cotton), exposing
them to fluctuating world prices. Heavy reliance on cotton
production (see the next chapter) and other crops means
their
economies depend a great deal on seasonal climate
and weather conditions, and the availability of arable land
and adequate amounts of water for irrigation (see discus-
sion in next chapter)
.
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Osh has a fine climate, an abundance of
running waters and a most beautiful spring
season. Many traditions have their rise in its
excellencies.